MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 13th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NOTE: We will skip over the first game of the doubleheader between the D-Backs and Indians. Most sites do not have players from that game listed in their player pool for the early slate.
Boston at Cincinnati
| Boston | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Anthony Ranaudo | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Leake | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.299 | 0.837 | 0.367 | 14.40% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.630 | 0.279 | 21.60% | ||||
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP  | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Anthony Ranaudo – Ranaudo will be making his 2nd career big league start today. He gave up 2 earned runs over 6 innings of work while striking out 2 batters in his debut outing against the Yankees. He’s had a terrific season in the minors posting a 2.58 ERA with 104 strikeouts over 125 innings pitched. That said, he’s still an inexperienced big league pitcher that is an extremely risky option at this point. Use him as a tournament play in the early slate. Rating = 4
Salaries: $4200 FD, $10400 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Mike Leake – Leake is having a very solid 2014 campaign. He owns a 3.42 ERA (3.44 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.0. He’s producing a career-high 54% ground ball rate which has allowed him to lower his HR/9 to only 0.90. Today he’s facing a Red Sox offense that is ranked 22nd in wOBA against RH pitching and 24th in wOBA on the road. He’s a small favorite in a game that features a low run total. He’s a solid option in the early slate. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8300 FD, $13500 DD, $7700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $13500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Brock Holt – Great American Ballpark is a very friendly park to LH hitters. Based on the ballpark factors under the Daily Research Console on RG, it’s actually the 4th most favorable ballpark for lefties. Holt draws a favorable matchup against Leake who has given up a .357 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: None
Cincinnati
Devin Mesoraco – It’s always hard to predict how young pitchers will fare in their first few major league starts, but I think Mesoraco is in a pretty good spot today. He has a .415 wOBA against RH pitching this season and a .406 wOBA at home. I always like targeting HR hitters in the Great American Ballpark.
Additional Plays: Jay Bruce, Billy Hamilton
Note – Jay Bruce has been scratched from today’s game
Minnesota at Houston
| Minnesota | Houston | ||||||||
| Kyle Gibson | Vegas Moneyline | Brett Oberholtzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | HOU (-110) | LEFT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.721 | 0.320 | 9.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.660 | 0.292 | 21.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.203 | 0.568 | 0.256 | 18.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.292 | 0.775 | 0.338 | 13.00% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Gibson – Gibson has struggled on the road this season. He has a 4.68 ERA away from home. He also has a very low K-rate as he is averaging just under 5 strikeouts per 9 innings. That’s just not going to cut it in the daily fantasy baseball world. I’ll be avoiding him today against the Astros who have been very tough at home in the last few weeks. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5600 FD, $11050 DD, $6200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $11050 FTD
- Brett Oberholtzer – Obertholtzer has been consistent lately. He hasn’t given up more than 3 earned runs in any of his last 5 starts and he’s pitched at least 6 innings in 10 straight starts.The downside with Oberholtzer is that he doesn’t strike very many batters out. He’s only averaging 5.7 strikeouts per 9 innings which isn’t high enough to make up for the couple of runs that he is likely going to give up to the Twins today. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6000 FD, $10450 DD, $6300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10450 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Danny Santana – Santana is almost a lock for me when he is facing a LH pitcher. He’s batting .339 with a .386 wOBA against southpaws this season. He has 17 hits over his last 10 games and also provides you with stolen base potential.
Additional Plays: Kennys Vargas, Trevor Plouffe
Houston
Jon Singleton – Singleton is typically a boom or bust type of option at 1B, but he draws a nice matchup against Gibson who has struggled on the road and who has struggled against LH hitters. Singleton has great power against RH pitching and should be batting in the heart of the Astros lineup.
Additional Plays: Jose Altuve, Robbie Grossman
Chicago White Sox at San Francisco
| Chicago White Sox | San Francisco | ||||||||
| Jose Quintana | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Peavy | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | SFG (-150) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.642 | 0.284 | 24.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.812 | 0.356 | 18.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.637 | 0.285 | 20.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.763 | 0.333 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jose Quintana – Quintana is one of the better pitchers in baseball that doesn’t get any recognition. He owns a 3.04 ERA (3.47 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.9. He’s also very consistent as he has only given up more than 2 earned runs 1 time in his last 10 starts. He has a pretty favorable matchup against the Giants who are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. He’s a small underdog here, but I think he outpitches Peavy. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $16000 DD, $8100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $16000 FTD
- Jake Peavy – Peavy can’t seem to stay away from that one bad inning. He can be cruising along in his start and then all of the sudden blow up and give up 3 runs. He has now given up at least 3 earned runs in 5 straight starts. He can still strike batters out (7.1 per 9 innings), but he has walked 8.2% of hitters that he has faced which is his highest since 2009. He also has a pretty tough matchup against the White Sox who are ranked 8th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6300 FD, $12450 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12450 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – AT&T Park isn’t exactly the most HR-friendly ballpark, but Abreu has enough power to hit HR’s anywhere. In addition to his power, he has also hit for average this season. I like his matchup against Peavy who has given up a .343 wOBA to RH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Alexei Ramirez, Conor Gillaspie
San Francisco
Buster Posey – Even though Quintana has held both LH and RH hitters under a .290 wOBA this season, I will have some exposure to Posey in this one. Posey has always hit LH pitching well and this season is no different as he is batting .301 with a .359 wOBA.
Additional Plays: None
Colorado at San Diego
| Colorado | San Diego | ||||||||
| Tyler Matzek | Vegas Moneyline | Ian Kennedy | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | SDP (-170) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.623 | 0.277 | 34.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.214 | 0.665 | 0.295 | 26.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.303 | 0.859 | 0.375 | 9.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.699 | 0.310 | 25.20% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SDP vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tyler Matzek – While the total of this game is set at only 6.5 runs, Matzek is a large underdog with Kennedy pitching opposite him. Matzek owns a 5.32 ERA with a K/9 of 5.4. I typically don’t like to see a similar ERA and K/9 from my starting pitchers. Not only that, but the Padres offense has actually been pretty good over the last month of play. He’s cheap, but he will need a terrific outing if he’s going to have a shot at getting the win. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5100 FD, $13250 DD, $4900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13250 FTD
- Ian Kennedy – Kennedy is the easy choice at pitcher in the early slate of games. He’s a big favorite and today’s game will be played in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in all of baseball. Kennedy is averaging 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings and draws a very favorable matchup against the Rockies who are one of the worst road hitting teams in baseball. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $15750 DD, $8300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15750 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Avoid all Rockies today against Kennedy.
San Diego
Jedd Gyorko – Gyorko is finally starting to hit. While he’s certainly not swinging a hot bat, he has 5 hits over his last 4 games and he has always had nice power against LH pitching. He’s a terrific value at 2B against Matzek who has given up a .374 wOBA to RH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Yangervis Solarte, Tommy Medica
NY Yankees at Baltimore
| NY Yankees | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Michael Pineda | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-125) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.712 | 0.308 | 24.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.696 | 0.312 | 15.20% |
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.695 | 0.307 | 15.70% | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Pineda – Pineda will make his first since April 23rd. While he was pitching well at the start of the season, it wasn’t without controversy as he made no attempts to hide the pine tar that he was using. He may be rusty in his first start back and it’s not the easiest of matchups as the Orioles are ranked 10th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Give him a couple of starts before targeting him in your lineups. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5800 FD, $13000 DD, $8900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13000 FTD
- Chris Tillman – Tillman has a 3.73 ERA on the season, but his xFIP of of 4.44 is very pedestrian. He’s only striking out 6.1 batters per 9 innings with a K/BB walk of 2.0. He has a tough matchup tonight against the Yankees who make very good contact. The Yankees are ranked 14th in wOBA vs. rigthies and only strike out at an 18% clip. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6800 FD, $13000 DD, $7400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $13000 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – It’s always a tough choice between Ellsbury and Gardner in the OF. I like both options equally tonight against Tillman. Ellsbury has decent pop against RH pitching and gives you the added bonus of a potential stolen base.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – Markakis is one of those players that always seems to be producing, yet he tends to get overlooked by the majority of DFS players. Markakis has been red hot with 17 hits over his last 10 games and I like the matchup against the RHP Pineda who will be making his first start in almost 4 months.
Additional Plays: Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Delmon Young