MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 13th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-13 18:08:08

Arizona at Cleveland

Arizona					Cleveland
Vidal Nuno		Vegas Moneyline			Josh Tomlin		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		CLE (-157)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.215	0.685	0.306	20.80%	SP vs. Left	0.240	0.709	0.304	22.50%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.807	0.350	17.50%	SP vs. Right	0.307	0.857	0.372	20.10%
Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Vidal Nuno – While the Indians do have a LH heavy lineup, Nuno is not a recommended fantasy option tonight. He owns a 5.01 ERA (4.33 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.9. He will post a solid outing every now and then, but the Indians are one of the best hitting teams at home as they are ranked 5th in home wOBA this season. He’s a sizable underdog for a reason. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5400 FD, $11800 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $11800 FTD

• Josh Tomlin – Tomlin’s 4.68 ERA may not look pretty, but he’s had some bad luck this season. His xFIP (what he can control) is at 3.18 and he is averaging just over 8 strikeouts per 9 innings. Tomlin also walks very few batters and has a K/BB close to 8.0 which is one of the best in the American League. It may be hard to use him in cash games, but I think he makes a nice play against a depleted Diamondbacks offense. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5700 FD, $11550 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11550 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Mark Trumbo – Tomlin has actually been very efficient against LH hitters this season. He has held them to a .301 wOBA. He has struggled with batters from the right side of the plate though and Trumbo is finally starting to heat up with 13 hits (4 XBH’s) over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Ender Inciarte

Cleveland

Yan Gomes – This is a terrific matchup for Gomes and I’m guessing that he’s going to get overlooked tonight. Gomes has mashed LH pitching to a tune of a .353 batting average and a .399 wOBA. He will likely move up a couple of spots in the lineup which should boost his fantasy value even more.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez

Pittsburgh at Detroit

Pittsburgh					Detroit
Vance Worley		Vegas Moneyline			Buck Farmer		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-119)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.675	0.299	9.30%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.225	0.579	0.258	19.00%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Vance Worley – I’m still not a believer in Worley, at least when it comes to daily fantasy baseball. He’s been very lucky this season which is the reason for the difference between his 2.30 ERA and his 3.66 xFIP. Worley has a low K-rate and very limited upside. He also draws a tough matchup against the Tigers who are ranked 5th in wOBA against RH pitching and 2nd in wOBA at home. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6400 FD, $14950 DD, $7300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14950 FTD

• Buck Farmer – Farmer will be making his major league debut tonight. He is one of the Tigers top pitching prospects, but he has yet to pitch above the Double-A level. The Tigers need him for a spot start and will likely send him back to the minors after this start. I like to take a wait and see approach with these young pitchers, so I’ll be avoiding him tonight against a red hot Pirates offense. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $5800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Josh Harrison – Harrison has been on fire. He only had 1 hit in last night’s game, but it was a double and he added a steal and a run so it was another very productive fantasy outing for him. He now has 19 hits (7 XBH’s) over his last 10 games and is facing a rookie pitcher making his major league debut.

Additional Plays: Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Miggy is always in play, especially when facing average pitching. He has 7 hits over his last 3 games and a great matchup against Worley. He is a top option at 1B if you are willing to pay up at the position.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler

LA Dodgers at Atlanta

LA Dodgers					Atlanta
Hyun-Jin Ryu		Vegas Moneyline			Ervin Santana		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		ATL (-113)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.649	0.288	18.30%	SP vs. Left	0.290	0.796	0.346	18.20%
SP vs. Right	0.252	0.670	0.295	22.30%	SP vs. Right	0.208	0.577	0.261	26.60%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu is coming off of an extremely impressive outing against the Angels. He posted 7 scoreless innings in Anaheim against one of the best offenses in baseball. Ryu is boasting a 3.21 ERA (3.19 xFIP) and has a K/9 of 7.9. He’s cut down on his walks this season and will face a strikeout happy Braves offense tonight. Ryu is in play on multi-pitcher sites and in tournaments. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8500 FD, $17750 DD, $10200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $17750 FTD

• Ervin Santana – Santana has been a nice addition to the Braves starting rotation. On the season he has a 3.69 ERA (3.37 xFIP) with a K/9 of 8.0. Santana is producing a ground ball rate of 46% and is only giving up a HR per fly ball rate of 8.2%. He will have his hands full tonight though as the Dodgers are very good against RH pitching. They are ranked 5th in wOBA (.325) against righties this season. Santana is in play, but I have Ryu ranked slightly ahead of him tonight. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8800 FD, $18050 DD, $9300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $18050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez has 11 hits over his last 6 games and draws a pretty favorable matchup against Santana who has struggled with LH hitters this season. Santana has given up a .290 batting average and a .356 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.

Additional Plays: Dee Gordon, Carl Crawford

Atlanta

Ryu has held both LH and RH hitters under a .290 wOBA this season. Evan Gattis and Justin Upton are both nice tournament plays, but I’ll be avoiding the Braves hitters in cash games.

Washington at NY Mets

Washington					NY Mets
Jordan Zimmermann		Vegas Moneyline			Bartolo Colon		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-120)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.664	0.293	19.90%	SP vs. Left	0.248	0.663	0.293	18.40%
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.687	0.304	25.10%	SP vs. Right	0.276	0.735	0.321	18.10%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Zimmermann – In 2 starts against the Mets this season, Zimmermann has a 4.36 ERA with only 6 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. That said, on paper this is a very solid matchup. The Mets are ranked 23rd in wOBA against RH pitching and 25th in wOBA at home this season. Meanwhile, Zimmermann is averaging over 8 strikeouts per 9 innings with an ERA of 3.01. Zimmermann also sees a park boost as Citi Field is one of the better pitcher’s parks in baseball. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8700 FD, $17550 DD, $9200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $17550 FTD

• Bartolo Colon – Colon has had an up and down season, but he has posted excellent numbers in his starts at Citi Field. Colon has a 3.21 ERA at home this season with 63 K’s over 70 innings of work. He’s facing a Nationals offense that is ranked 16th in wOBA against RH pitching. It’s a pretty decent matchup in a pitcher’s park. He’s not my favorite play of the night, but he’s certainly worth a look on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8000 FD, $14850 DD, $7500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – Even though Colon has had some reverse splits this season, he’s historically given up a much higher average to LH hitters. LaRoche has 7 XBH’s over his last 10 games and makes a nice play at 1B tonight.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Denard Span

NY Mets

Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda have both been playing well, but I’ll be avoiding all Mets tonight against Zimmermann.

St. Louis at Miami

St. Louis					Miami
Justin Masterson		Vegas Moneyline			Nathan Eovaldi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIA (-125)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.323	0.944	0.412	13.60%	SP vs. Left	0.293	0.803	0.348	14.30%
SP vs. Right	0.222	0.659	0.305	28.20%	SP vs. Right	0.209	0.572	0.255	19.50%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Justin Masterson – Masterson has not pitched well as a member of the Cardinals. In 2 starts, he has given up 10 earned runs while only striking out 6 batters over 6 innings of work. Masterson is one of those streaky pitchers that you want to avoid when his command is off. I’ll be avoiding him tonight against a very capable Marlins offense. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $9750 DD, $5300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $9750 FTD

• Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has been sharp in his last 2 starts. He has given up a combined 1 earned run while striking out 12 batters over 15 innings of work. His price has yet to adjust to his recent level of production so you can still find him at a discount on most fantasy sites. He draws a pretty favorable matchup against the Cardinals who are ranked 20th in wOBA against RH pitching. I also expect him to see some run support so if he pitches well, he will likely be in line for the win. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6300 FD, $12800 DD, $6300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Matt Adams – Adams is always a nice cash game play when he’s facing a RH pitcher. He can typically be found at a bargain price and he consistently produces against RH pitching. Tonight he faces Eovaldi who has given up a .343 wOBA to LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter

Miami

Christian Yelich – Yelich is one of my favorite plays at any position tonight. Masterson has been awful against LH hitters this season. He has given up a .325 batting average and a .416 wOBA to lefties. Yelich has always hit RH pitching well and has the always welcome combination of speed and power. I’m expecting a multi-hit, multi-run type of game from Yelich.

Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Garrett Jones, Casey McGehee

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3