MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 6 - Page Three
Detroit at Chicago White Sox
| Detroit | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Alfredo Simon |  | Chris Sale | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CWS (-145) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.313 | 0.152 | SP vs. Left | 0.165 | 0.393 | 0.183 | 0.367 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.665 | 0.296 | 0.159 | SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.608 | 0.272 | 0.289 |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | Batter Splits | CWS BvP | CWS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Alfredo Simon (FD: $7600, DK: $5300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.85 — K Rate: 16.5% — K/9: 5.97 — BB Rate: 4.7% — GB Rate: 49.5%
2014: SIERA: 4.17 — K Rate: 15.5% — K/9: 5.82 — BB Rate: 6.9% — GB Rate: 48.2%
Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Simon is having a similar season to that of last year, posting a 3.85 SIERA with a low K/9 of 6.0. He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher by any means, but he does produce a high ground-ball rate right around 50%. He draws a mediocre matchup against the White Sox tonight, who are right below the league average in wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:51.7
Chris Sale (FD: $9800, DK: $10000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.45 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.18 — BB Rate: 5.3% — GB Rate: 47.1%
2014: SIERA: 2.56 — K Rate: 30.4% — K/9: 10.76 — BB Rate: 5.7% — GB Rate: 40.7%
Detroit Tigers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.336 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Sale is looking to bounce back after getting shelled by the Twins in his last start. He gave up nine runs in only three innings of work. Sale is still one of the best pitchers in baseball though and we shouldn’t discount him too heavily for one single bad outing. He should bounce back tonight, but he’ll have a tough time reaching value against a Tigers’ offense that is ranked fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:82.1
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez (FD: $3200, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.436 — ISO: 0.053 — OBP: 0.522
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.322 — OBP: 0.430
Analysis: Martinez has a little bit of everything in his favor tonight. He has a great track record against left-handed pitching, posting a .436 wOBA this season. He also has a great track record against Chris Sale, going 15-for-32 with three home runs and three doubles off of him in his career. I’m not a huge fan of BvP, but when you see past results this good against a certain pitcher, they are hard to ignore.
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera (FD: $5200, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.407
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.364
Chicago White Sox
Adam Eaton (FD: $2400, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.222 — ISO: 0.037 — OBP: 0.254
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.119 — OBP: 0.358
Analysis: Eaton is off to a rough start this season, but he is slowly turning things around. It also helps that his price has dropped considerably on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Eaton finished the 2014 season with a .344 wOBA and a .119 ISO. He has good speed on the bases and he’ll be batting leadoff tonight against Alfredo Simon.
Secondary Plays:
Melky Cabrera (FD: $2500, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.032 — OBP: 0.418
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.355
Adam LaRoche (FD: $2500, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.344
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.390
Oakland at Minnesota
| Oakland | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Scott Kazmir |  | Kyle Gibson | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-120) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.270 | 0.673 | 0.304 | 0.219 | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.706 | 0.315 | 0.089 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.64 | 0.285 | 0.209 | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.65 | 0.291 | 0.201 |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Scott Kazmir (FD: $9400, DK: $8000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.14 — K Rate: 27.3% — K/9: 9.72 — BB Rate: 7.6% — GB Rate: 43.9%
2014: SIERA: 3.61 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 7.75 — BB Rate: 6.4% — GB Rate: 43.8%
Minnesota Twins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Kazmir is off to a quick start this season, posting a 3.14 SIERA with a K/9 of 9.7. His strikeouts seem to come and go at different points throughout the season and right now he’s striking out hitters in bunches. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Twins, who are ranked 21st in wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Twins could actually be much worst against southpaws if it weren’t for their big outing against Chris Sale last week.
Pitcher Rating:72.5
Kyle Gibson (FD: $6200, DK: $5600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.44 — K Rate: 7.6% — K/9: 2.97 — BB Rate: 9.9% — GB Rate: 51.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.18 — K Rate: 14.1% — K/9: 5.37 — BB Rate: 7.5% — GB Rate: 54.4%
Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 16.0% (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Strikeouts are king in daily fantasy baseball and they are something that is currently missing from Gibson’s repertoire. On the season he has a K/9 of 3.0 with a walk rate that is much higher than his strikeout rate. Gibson can safely be avoided against an A’s offense that feasts on right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:27.2
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Billy Burns (FD: $2300, DK: $2700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.077 — OBP: 0.429
Analysis: As long as Mr. Burns (EXCELLENT) stays at the major-league level, he is going to rack up the stolen bases. He has played well so far this season with a .394 wOBA against right-handed pitching. I always love targeting cheap speed at the top of the order and Burns certainly fits that mold. He is priced under $3,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against Kyle Gibson.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Reddick (FD: $4100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.496 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.479
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.330
Stephen Vogt (FD: $4000, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.498 — ISO: 0.348 — OBP: 0.468
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.331
Marcus Semien (FD: $2900, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.189 — OBP: 0.298
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.294
Minnesota
Trevor Plouffe (FD: $2900, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.171 — OBP: 0.326
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.152 — OBP: 0.353
Analysis: Plouffe is always in play when the Twins are facing a left-handed pitcher. He has a .329 wOBA this season with a career .354 wOBA against southpaws. Scott Kazmir has pitched well this season, but he’s certainly hittable. Dollar for dollar, Plouffe is one of the top third base options tonight on FanDuel, although he may be a little too expensive on DraftKings.
Secondary Plays:
Brian Dozier (FD: $3400, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.349
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.337
Texas at Houston
| Texas | Houston | ||||||||
 | Colby Lewis |  | Samuel Deduno | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-135) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.316 | 0.853 | 0.373 | 0.158 | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.743 | 0.335 | 0.172 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.823 | 0.355 | 0.196 | SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.714 | 0.317 | 0.205 |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Colby Lewis (FD: $6500, DK: $6800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.15 — K Rate: 19.5% — K/9: 6.9 — BB Rate: 6.8% — GB Rate: 34.5%
2014: SIERA: 4.22 — K Rate: 17.5% — K/9: 7.03 — BB Rate: 6.3% — GB Rate: 33.0%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 29)
Analysis: All jokes aside with Lewis, he has actually pitched pretty well since the All-Star Break last season. In 2015, he has posted a 4.15 SIERA with a K/9 of 6.9. He doesn’t produce many groundball outs though, which could be a problem in the home-run friendly Minute Maid Park. He sees a strikeout boost in tonight’s matchup against the Astros, but he’s too risky to use against a team that hits a lot of home runs.
Pitcher Rating:43.5
Samuel Deduno (FD: $5100, DK: $4000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.62 — K Rate: 20.0% — K/9: 7.43 — BB Rate: 9.1% — GB Rate: 50.0%
2014: SIERA: 3.89 — K Rate: 18.7% — K/9: 7.42 — BB Rate: 10.4% — GB Rate: 53.5%
Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.260 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Deduno is a pitcher that will find himself on very few rosters tonight. He has a mediocre SIERA and a decent strikeout rate, but he struggles with his command. The Rangers are a favorable matchup, but it’s hard to justify taking a pitcher in a game that has a total of 9.0 runs. The price is cheap, but Deduno is nothing more than a flier for tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:48.6
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Adrian Beltre (FD: $2800, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.253 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.246
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.369
Analysis: As I’ve mentioned in the past, it’s only a matter of time before the hits start falling for Beltre. A guy that hits the ball that hard isn’t going to have a .226 BABIP for very long. His unlucky start has lowered his price on FanDuel to a very playable $2,800. He should be considered an elite play against Samuel Deduno in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.
Secondary Plays:
Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $2800, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.230 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.231
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.329 — ISO: 0.140 — OBP: 0.348
Houston
Luis Valbuena (FD: $2900, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.375 — ISO: 0.313 — OBP: 0.311
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.347
Analysis: Valbuena was the sole source of production for the Astros’ offense last night, which was a bit of a surprise as many experts had them pegged as the top offense to target. Valbuena is grossly underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he has been all season. He has a .375 wOBA and a .313 ISO against right-handed pitching. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Colby Lewis, who gave up a .373 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Altuve (FD: $5000, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.141 — OBP: 0.325
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.356
Evan Gattis (FD: $4000, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.302 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.242
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.308
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
 | Jon Lester |  | Lance Lynn | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (-120) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.696 | 0.309 | 0.251 | SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.697 | 0.314 | 0.172 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.617 | 0.275 | 0.248 | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.635 | 0.284 | 0.238 |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jon Lester (FD: $8900, DK: $9700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.18 — K Rate: 23.0% — K/9: 8.79 — BB Rate: 4.9% — GB Rate: 41.2%
2014: SIERA: 3.09 — K Rate: 24.9% — K/9: 9.01 — BB Rate: 5.4% — GB Rate: 42.4%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 21)
Analysis: Lester is pitching much better than his ERA (4.71) would suggest. I mentioned that a big outing was coming from Lester soon and sure enough it came in his last start against the Brewers. We’ll see if he can parlay that into another good outing tonight against a Cardinals’ offense that has really struggled against southpaws this season. They are currently ranked 25th in wOBA and 21st in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Lester is a very sneaky tournament play tonight.
Pitcher Rating:77.7
Lance Lynn (FD: $8300, DK: $8800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.79 — K Rate: 29.8% — K/9: 11.05 — BB Rate: 6.6% — GB Rate: 37.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.84 — K Rate: 20.9% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 8.3% — GB Rate: 44.3%
Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Lynn is off to a terrific start in 2015, posting a 2.79 SIERA with an elite K/9 of 11.1. He has improved his walk rate, while simultaneously improving his strikeout rate as well. While the Cubs have a potent offense, they are also prone to strikeouts. The Cubs have the highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Run support will likely be limited from both teams, but dollar for dollar, Lynn may be the top pitching option on the board tonight.
Pitcher Rating:85.2
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4300, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.442
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.373
St. Louis
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Matt Holliday (FD: $3500, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.437 — ISO: 0.056 — OBP: 0.577
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.263 — OBP: 0.440
Jhonny Peralta (FD: $2700, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.202 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.250
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.212 — OBP: 0.401
Seattle at LA Angels
| Seattle | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Roenis Elias |  | C.J. Wilson | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAA (-135) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.209 | 0.655 | 0.298 | 0.243 | SP vs. Left | 0.198 | 0.572 | 0.266 | 0.234 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.729 | 0.324 | 0.196 | SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.774 | 0.345 | 0.186 |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | Batter Splits | ANA BvP | ANA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Roenis Elias (FD: $6800, DK: $7500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.49 — K Rate: 28.0% — K/9: 10.8 — BB Rate: 12.0% — GB Rate: 53.6%
2014: SIERA: 3.96 — K Rate: 20.6% — K/9: 7.86 — BB Rate: 9.2% — GB Rate: 45.4%
LA Angels of Anaheim vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Elias has looked sharp in his first two starts of the season, posting a 3.49 SIERA and a K/9 of 10.8. He also produces a high ground-ball rate, which we like to see. The biggest knock on Elias is that he walks too many batters. He walked 9.2% of the batters that he faced last season and that number is up to 12% this season. Elias draws a tough matchup against the Angels, who are ranked sixth in wOBA against left-handed pitching. There are better options at his price point tonight.
Pitcher Rating:54.4
C.J. Wilson (FD: $7900, DK: $7800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.37 — K Rate: 17.0% — K/9: 6.27 — BB Rate: 7.4% — GB Rate: 40.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.23 — K Rate: 19.8% — K/9: 7.74 — BB Rate: 11.2% — GB Rate: 47.8%
Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Wilson has pitched pretty well in his last two starts, but he still doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in those of us that play DFS. He’s coming off of his worst season as a pro and his numbers are actually slightly worse this season. The risk outweighs the potential reward with Wilson, especially at his price point.
Pitcher Rating:61.3
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Nelson Cruz (FD: $5200, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.872 — ISO: 1.000 — OBP: 0.636
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.255 — OBP: 0.407
Analysis: To quote the great Dan Back, “If you aren’t using Cruz in your cash game lineups tonight, you are just going to lose.” Cruz has been a monster of all monsters against left-handed pitching this season, posting an incredible .872 wOBA and a 1.000 ISO. Wilson struggles against right-handed hitters and with few aces on the mound tonight, it’s easy to fit Cruz into your lineups.
Secondary Plays:
Rickie Weeks (FD: $2500, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.417
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.248 — OBP: 0.361
LA Angels
David Freese (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.598 — ISO: 0.625 — OBP: 0.444
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.386
Analysis: Mike Trout is obviously a great play tonight as well, but if I’m paying up for an outfielder, it’s going to be Nelson Cruz. Freese has actually had a better season than Trout against lefties, posting a .598 wOBA and a .625 ISO. Obviously, those numbers won’t hold up over the course of the season, but Freese is cheap and a good source of power.
Secondary Plays:
Mike Trout (FD: $5300, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 — ISO: 0.067 — OBP: 0.400
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.248 — OBP: 0.386