MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, October 15th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Baltimore at Kansas City
| Baltimore | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | Vegas Moneyline | Jason Vargas | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.772 | 0.340 | 15.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.661 | 0.296 | 16.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.724 | 0.321 | 18.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.730 | 0.321 | 16.30% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP  | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Miguel Gonzalez – The Orioles dropped Game 3 and are now down 0-3 in the series. The Red Sox are the only team in major-league history to come back and win a series after being down 0-3. I don’t love the Orioles chances, as the Royals just look like they want it more. Gonzalez will take the mound tonight in an effort to force a Game 5. On the season, Gonzalez posted a 3.23 ERA (4.46 xFIP) with a strikeout rate of 6.3 batters per 9 innings. In his lone start against the Royals this season, Gonzalez went six innings while giving up three earned runs. Expect a similar outing from him tonight. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $18500 DD, $8000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jason Vargas – Vargas will look to complete the sweep for the Royals tonight who have yet to lose in the postseason. This is an incredible story for baseball. Vargas had some very interesting home/road splits this season. Even though Kaufmann Stadium is one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in the American League, Vargas posted a 4.53 ERA at home while giving up a .330 wOBA to his opponents. The numbers seem to be an aberration more than anything else, as he is a fly-ball pitcher in a park built for fly-ball pitchers. His fantasy outing will likely come down to how he fares against Nelson Cruz and Adam Jones, since both have crushed left-handed pitching this season. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6200 FD, $17000 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Cruz has everything in his favor tonight. He’s been swinging a hot bat in the postseason with a .400 batting average. He’s also knocked in seven runs and scored five runs himself. He also has a great matchup against the left-handed Vargas, whom he has hit four HRs off of in his career. Cruz crushed lefties this season to the tune of a .314 batting average and a .416 wOBA.
J.J. Hardy – Adam Jones is also in play, but he has been swinging at some terrible pitches, especially early in the count. Hardy has hit left-handed pitching well with a .341 wOBA in his career. He should fare well against Vargas, who has given up a .321 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Adam Jones, Steve Pearce, Jonathan Schoop
Kansas City
Alex Gordon – Gonzalez had some reverse splits earlier in the season, but those have actually switched over the course of the entire season. He has given up a .340 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Gordon is only batting .231 in the postseason, but he’s come up with nine RBI and three SBs.
Eric Hosmer – Hosmer has made some terrific plays offensively and defensively. In addition to his timely hits, he is batting .462 with two HRs, seven RBI, and five runs. Look for the hot streak to continue tonight against Gonzalez, who has given up a .340 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Nori Aoki, Mike Moustakas, Billy Butler
St. Louis at San Francisco
| St. Louis | San Francisco | ||||||||
| Shelby Miller | Vegas Moneyline | Ryan Vogelsong | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.709 | 0.314 | 16.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.787 | 0.346 | 20.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.689 | 0.307 | 17.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.675 | 0.301 | 18.40% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Shelby Miller – Miller faltered in the sixth inning of his first postseason start, but the Cardinals ended up winning that game. He’s pitched very well down the stretch with a 1.42 ERA over his last five regular season starts. The key has been his ability to limit giving up free base passes to his opponents. We have to go on current form over his season numbers here, and his current form suggests another strong outing from Miller. The Giants have really struggled to find power in the postseason, which should help Miller and his low ground-ball rate. I have the Cardinals taking Game 4 on the back of a strong start from Miller. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8600 FD, $17700 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong pitched well in his first postseason start. He only gave up two hits and a single earned run to the Nationals. Vogelsong has been lights out at home this season with a 3.06 ERA while holding opponents to a .276 wOBA. Vogelsong has a respectable strikeout rate of 7.4 batters per 9 innings. He’s likely the second best pitcher on the slate, but he’ll have to get past the power left-handed bats of the Cardinals that have done plenty of damage to the Giants pitching staff in this series. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $17150 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Matt Carpenter – Opposing pitchers have to hate seeing this guy come up to the plate. He has been as tough of an out as anyone so far in the postseason. Carpenter is batting .310 with four HRs and eight RBI. He should find some success against Vogelsong, who has given up a .346 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.
Kolten Wong – Wong has come up big for the Cardinals in back to back games. After hitting the walk-off HR in Game 2, he hit a triple and a double while driving in two RBI. Second base has been such a thin position that he becomes a no-brainer against Vogelsong, who has struggled against left-handed hitters.
Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta, Jon Jay
San Francisco
Pablo Sandoval – Even though Miller is my favorite pitcher, with a two-game slate you can afford to take a hitter or two against your starting pitcher. Sandoval has now reached base safely in 14 straight playoff games and will look to extend that streak today against Miller. Sandoval hit right-handed pitching well this season with a .317 batting average and a .359 wOBA.
Brandon Belt – Belt is having himself a very nice postseason. He’s batting .321 with a .444 on-base percentage. He has hit right-handed pitching well all season long and draws a favorable matchup against Miller, who has historically struggled against left-handed hitters.
Additional Plays: Buster Posey, Joe Panik