MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, October 1st
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
| San Francisco | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | Vegas Moneyline | Edinson Volquez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | SFG (-113) | RIGHT | 6.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.539 | 0.239 | 31.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.728 | 0.321 | 17.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.684 | 0.302 | 23.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.634 | 0.286 | 17.20% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP  | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
What a way to kick off the MLB postseason! The Royals did what they did all season long: they continued to fight their way back into the game and got some timely hitting time and time again. They also showed their speed once Derek Norris got into the game by stealing seven bases against the A’s. It was one of those games where you hated to see one of the teams lose, but what a terrific performance by the Royals. They will now move on to face the Angels in the divisional series.
Pitcher Grind Down
- Madison Bumgarner – The Giants postseason hopes all rest on the arm of Madison Bumgarner and that’s just the way that they want it. Bumgarner has been dominant in the second half of the season. He has posted a 2.29 ERA while striking out 9 batters per 9 innings. He’s also held his opponents to a .205 batting average during that stretch. He squares off against a Pirates offense that is ranked 21st in wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Pirates are a scary team to take pitchers against, but that’s pretty much the case for every pitcher now that we are in the postseason. The Giants are a veteran team that knows how to win big games. While I’m pulling for the Buccos, I expect the Giants to pick up the win. Rating = 8
Salaries: $9800 FD, $20900 DD, $12000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Edinson Volquez – Volquez has really pitched well this season, but he’s not exactly your prototypical ace. He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher that can dominate opponents. He walks a lot of batters and is a pitcher whose peripheral stats just don’t line up with his 3.04 ERA. This game is set as a pick ‘em in Vegas, but of the two pitchers, Bumgarner has more upside and will likely pitch deeper into this game. Considering his struggles against the Giants in the past, Volquez can safely be avoided in cash games. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8600 FD, $15500 DD, $8500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey – While Posey is typically preferred against left-handed pitching, he’s always a solid play in big games. He has a good track record against Edison Volquez, going 5/9 with 2 doubles in his career. Posey is batting .314 with a .366 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is facing the most hittable pitcher on the board.
Pablo Sandoval – Pablo hasn’t had the best month of September, but he’s been terrific against right-handed pitching all season. He’s batting .317 with a .359 wOBA against righties. Meanwhile, Volquez has given up a .321 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. The Panda has also hit Volquez well going 6/13 with three doubles. He should be batting 4th or 5th tonight.
Additional Plays: Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – Cutch made a strong push for the NL MVP with a .450 wOBA in the month of September. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball against left-hand pitching since coming into the majors. He owns a career .328 batting average with a .422 wOBA against southpaws.
Russell Martin – Martin has some reverse splits going on, but he’s still been good against left-handed pitching with a .257 batting average and a .324 wOBA this season. He is 3/7 against Bumgarner in his career and should be batting in the heart of the Buccos lineup.
Additional Plays: Josh Harrison
Detroit at Baltimore
| Detroit | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.685 | 0.305 | 25.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.670 | 0.299 | 17.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.629 | 0.279 | 31.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.672 | 0.299 | 17.40% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Max Scherzer – This should be one heck of a series. These are two of the best offenses in the American League, but the Tigers certainly have the edge in pitching. The Tigers will throw their ace Max Scherzer out on the mound for Game 1. Scherzer has been terrific down the stretch and has really been locked in since the All-Star Break. During that stretch, he has posted a 2.87 ERA with 106 strikeouts over 94 innings of work. Scherzer hasn’t faced the Orioles this season though and his low ground-ball rate does concern me a bit against an Orioles offense that led the majors in home runs this season. That said, his strikeout potential makes him a very enticing play. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10800 FD, $22000 DD, $12600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Chris Tillman – Tillman is a pitcher whose ERA looks a lot better than his peripheral stats. Tillman has a low BABIP of .267 and his xFIP of 4.20 is nearly a full run higher than his ERA. He has a low strikeout rate for an ace at only 6.5 per 9 innings. He may have the toughest matchup on the board as the Tigers were ranked 5th in wOBA against right-handed pitching and 3rd in wOBA on the road. Even with a cheap price tag, I would pass on Tillman in Game 1 against the Tigers. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $14450 DD, $9200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Martinez is having a career season. He has hit 32 home runs this year while driving in 103 runs. He’s batting .323 with a .390 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is 4/10 against Chris Tillman in his career. He should see a few RBI opportunities in this one.
Torii Hunter – Hunter has a ton of postseason experience. In his career, he has hit for a .279 average in the postseason with an OBP of .340. Hunter is not going to hit a ton of home runs or steal many bases, but he’s a solid hitter with some of the best hitters in baseball right behind him in the lineup.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez
Baltimore
Adam Jones – Jones has been much better against left-handed pitching this season, but he’s had great success off of Max Scherzer in his career. Jones is 9/18 with a home run and two doubles against him. While the matchup isn’t ideal, don’t be surprised to see the Orioles hit a solo shot or two off of Scherzer.
Nelson Cruz – Cruz finished the season strong. In the month of September, he hit for a .349 batting average and a wOBA of .428. On the season Cruz owns a .356 wOBA against right-handed pitching and he also has good numbers against Scherzer going 8/21 with a home run and a double.
Additional Plays: Nick Markakis
Kansas City at LA Angels
| Kansas City | LA Angels | ||||||||
| Jeremy Guthrie | Vegas Moneyline | Jered Weaver | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.828 | 0.364 | 14.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.723 | 0.321 | 19.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.601 | 0.270 | 13.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.210 | 0.619 | 0.277 | 17.90% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeremy Guthrie – The Royals are coming off of an incredible win in the Wildcard game and now have to travel across the country for Game 1 against the Angels. Guthrie has been an avoidable daily fantasy pitcher all season long and that’s not going to change in the postseason. He owns an average ERA of 4.13 with a below average K/9 of 5.5. He really struggles with hitters from the left side of the plate and should be avoided in all leagues. He is my least favorite pitcher in this three game slate. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $11200 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jered Weaver – Weaver has been a tale of two pitchers this season. His road splits aren’t great, but he has really pitched well at home with a 2.68 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 117 innings of work. Weaver has also held his opponents to a .209 batting average at home this season. While the Royals aren’t a team that strikes out often, they also don’t draw many walks or hit many home runs. If Weaver can provide the Angels with a quality start, he will likely be in line for the win. He doesn’t have the same strikeout potential as Bumgarner or Scherzer, but he’s also a lot cheaper. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8100 FD, $17200 DD, $9800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer – Weaver has been very good at home this season, but he has been vulnerable to hitters from the left side of the plate. Hosmer finished the season strong with a .346 wOBA in the month of September. He also delivered a huge triple that led to the Royals tying up the Wildcard game against the A’s.
Additional Plays: Alex Gordon, Norichika Aoki
LA Angels
Kole Calhoun – As mentioned above, Guthrie really struggles against hitters from the left side of the plate. He has given up a .364 wOBA to left-handed hitters and Calhoun has mashed RH pitching to the tune of a .348 wOBA this season. At his price, he’s one of the top plays in the OF.
Erick Aybar – While the hitters listed below are also in play, you want to take advantage of the .364 wOBA that Guthrie gives up to batters from the left side of the plate. Aybar is easily the top shortstop in this short slate of games and should have quite a few opportunities to drive in runs as he will be hitting in the heart of the order.
Additional Plays: Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick