MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 10th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Vance Worley | Vegas Moneyline | Jerome Williams | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-126) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.729 | 0.323 | 13.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.312 | 0.855 | 0.375 | 17.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.689 | 0.302 | 20.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.688 | 0.307 | 14.20% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP  | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Vance Worley – Worley continues to pitch well, but his peripheral stats continue to suggest that he’s not pitching up to his 3.04 ERA level. He owns a 3.64 xFIP and has an average strikeout rate of 6.5 batters per 9 innings. The good news is that he has cut down on his walks (1.9 per 9 innings) and his HR’s (0.9 per 9) this season. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies who are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. All in all, he’s a pretty mediocre fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $15050 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jerome Williams – Williams is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. He has bounced around the majors and minors for years. This season he owns a 5.34 ERA with a low K/9 of 6.2. He draws an extremely tough matchup against the Pirates who are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. There is little to no fantasy appeal here. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5800 FD, $8850 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – While I love the RH bats in the Pirates lineup, Walker has a better matchup. Williams has given up a .372 wOBA to LH hitters this season and Walker is sporting a .344 wOBA against RH pitching. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities batting clean-up.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Josh Harrison
Philadelphia
Chase Utley – Utley always makes a nice cash game play when he is facing a RH pitcher. He doesn’t have incredible upside, but he has a high floor and a nice matchup against Worley who hasn’t been great against LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Ben Revere
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Kyle Gibson | Vegas Moneyline | T.J. House | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-151) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.695 | 0.310 | 9.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.612 | 0.271 | 19.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.639 | 0.288 | 18.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.309 | 0.850 | 0.373 | 17.30% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Gibson – Gibson is producing a solid 55% ground ball rate, but owns a very low strikeout rate which really caps his upside. Gibson is boasting a 4.27 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 5.2. He has an ERA over 5.00 since the start of August and draws an extremely tough matchup against the Indians who are ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Gibson should be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5500 FD, $10900 DD, $5400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- T.J. House – Not many people are paying attention to House, but he has had an excellent rookie season. He owns a 3.71 ERA (3.24 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.9. He has pitched extremely well at home with a 2.70 ERA. His biggest issue this season has been his inability to get RH hitters out. He has given up a .373 wOBA to righties and the Twins have a few RH hitters in their lineup that feast on LH pitching. I think he’ll do enough to get the win, but he’ll likely give up a couple of runs in the process. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $9950 DD, $6500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Trevor Plouffe – As mentioned above, House has given up a .373 wOBA to RH hitters. Plouffe has always hit LH pitching well and he’s been locked in since the start of August with close to a .380 wOBA. He’s one of the better values at 3B tonight if you are looking to save some cap space.
Additional Plays: Brian Dozier, Kennys Vargas
Cleveland
Michael Brantley – Brantley was a bit of a disappointment last night against Trevor May, but should get right back on the horse tonight with a favorable matchup against Kyle Gibson. Brantley has been red hot with 15 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Capuano | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-110) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.650 | 0.288 | 29.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.330 | 0.991 | 0.430 | 14.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.694 | 0.311 | 20.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.680 | 0.298 | 23.20% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi has an elite strikeout rate. He has struck out an average of 9.7 batters per 9 innings this season. The biggest red flag here is his inability to pitch on the road. His road ERA is nearly double that of his ERA at home and he has given up a .371 wOBA to his opponents on the road. Tonight he faces a Yankees offense that makes great contact as a team. The combination of his bad matchup and his struggles on the road make him an easy avoid for me tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $15250 DD, $8600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Chris Capuano – Capuano has given up at least 3 runs in each of his last 5 starts. On the season he owns a 4.46 ERA, but he does have a much lower xFIP of 3.58 and a solid K/9 of 8.2. Tonight he is facing a Rays offense that is ranked 21st in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. He’s not the worst option available tonight, but he’s not the best fantasy option either. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $12800 DD, $6500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
James Loney – Capuano has given up some serious reverse splits this season. He has held RH hitters under a .300 wOBA, while giving up a .420 wOBA to lefties. Loney and the other LH hitters in this Rays offense are all sneaky plays tonight.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – As mentioned above, Odorizzi has not pitched well on the road. With the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, these LH hitters on the Yankees are all in play. Ellsbury takes the cake as the top play as he is a decent source of power (15 HR’s) and a great source of speed (37 SB’s).
Additional Plays: Brian McCann
Chicago Cubs at Toronto
| Chicago Cubs | Toronto | ||||||||
| Kyle Hendricks | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Hutchison | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-150) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.567 | 0.253 | 12.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.800 | 0.349 | 20.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.605 | 0.271 | 14.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.617 | 0.274 | 23.30% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Hendricks – Through 10 starts, Hendricks is sporting a shiny 2.02 ERA. He’s had some good luck and/or good defense behind him though as his xFIP is almost double his ERA. Basically, he’s likely to regress a bit down the stretch of the regular season. Hendricks doesn’t strike many batters out (4.9 per 9 innings) and he’ll have his hands full with the Blue Jays who are ranked 1st overall in wOBA vs. RH pitching. There is more risk than reward here. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6500 FD, $13650 DD, $7000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Drew Hutchison – Hutchison had some awful splits at home earlier in the season, but he’s been much better at home over his last few starts. He owns an elite strikeout rate of 8.2 batters per 9 innings and he has a decent 4.47 ERA considering the fact that he pitches in the AL East. Tonight he faces a Cubs offense that 1. Can’t hit RH pitching (25th in wOBA) and 2. Strike out a ton (23.1% strikeout rate against RH pitching). I’m expecting him to see run support as well. He’s in play for tournaments and as a cheap #2 on a multi-pitcher site. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6600 FD, $12600 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
There really aren’t any options that stand out here. Jorge Soler and Javier Baez are both decent GPP plays thanks to the ballpark boost, but I’ll be avoiding all Cubbies in cash games.
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Reyes is always in play against RH pitching, especially at home (.339 wOBA). He sees a huge ballpark boost in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and he is always a threat to steal against righties.
Additional Plays: “Joey Bats” Bautista, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion
Kansas City at Detroit
| Kansas City | Detroit | ||||||||
| James Shields | Vegas Moneyline | Rick Porcello | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-105) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.717 | 0.317 | 19.20% | SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.707 | 0.310 | 12.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.718 | 0.315 | 18.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.669 | 0.294 | 17.50% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- James Shields – Shields is known as a big game pitcher and the Royals need him to live up to his reputation tonight as they face the Tigers in Detroit. On the season, Shields owns a 3.23 ERA with a K/9 of 7.0. He has cut down on his walks this season (1.8 per 9 innings), but is producing his lowest swinging strike rate of his career (9.0%). I don’t hate Shields tonight, but I don’t like taking pitchers against great offenses and that’s the main reason why Shields will not find his way into any of my lineups. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8600 FD, $16900 DD, $8700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Rick Porcello – Porcello is a low strikeout pitcher (5.4 per 9 innings) that is facing the Royals who strike out fewer times than any other team in baseball. There is little to no upside with Porcello tonight. Porcello’s other pitching numbers look great, he has a 3.30 ERA and is only walking 1.7 batters per 9 innings. That said, I don’t expect the strikeouts to be there tonight and in daily fantasy baseball, strikeouts are king. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $14100 DD, $8000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Even though I won’t be targeting Rick Porcello tonight, I won’t be targeting any hitters against him either. Porcello has held both LH and RH hitters under a .310 wOBA this season.
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera has really hit Shields well in his career and it’s a large sample size which always helps BvP’s cause. He’s 19/50 against Shields with 10 of those hits going for extra bases. Miggy does look a bit banged up right now, but he can still hit.
Additional Plays: None
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