MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 10th Page Two
Colorado at NY Mets
| Colorado | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Tyler Matzek | Vegas Moneyline | Rafael Montero | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | NYM (-140) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.172 | 0.507 | 0.231 | 26.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.911 | 0.394 | 13.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.835 | 0.365 | 13.30% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.787 | 0.351 | 25.80% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP  | COL vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tyler Matzek – It’s crazy to think that if this game was in Coors Field instead of Citi Field, the total would likely be set at 10.5 runs. Instead, the total is only set at 7.0 runs. Matzek has actually been a pretty serviceable pitcher. He owns a 4.32 ERA (4.08 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.3. He does walk 3.2 batters per 9 innings, but hasn’t given up many HR’s. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Mets who are ranked 28th in wOBA vs. LH pitching while striking out at a 24% clip which is one of the highest in baseball. For the price, Matzek could be a nice target on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6
Salaries: $5500 FD, $13250 DD, $6100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Rafael Montero – Montero will be making his 7th start of the season. While he does have the ability to strike batters out (7.7 per 9 innings), he’s struggled with his command (4.4 walks per 9 innings) and has given up too many runs (5.23 ERA). While the Rockies are a bad road team, their lineup looks very good now that Michael Cuddyer and Wilin Rosario are back. I’d much rather target Tyler Matzek at the same price. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5300 FD, $8350 DD, $5700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Corey Dickerson – The sample size is small, but Montero has given up a .396 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Dickerson on the other hand has mashed RH pitching to the tune of a .318 batting average and a .411 wOBA. He’s a sneaky play tonight even in a bad hitter’s park.
Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon, Justin Morneau
NY Mets
Juan Lagares – It sounds like the Mets will shut David Wright down for the rest of the season which really hurts this lineup. That said, Lagares is in play against the lefty Matzek as he is batting .350 with a .378 wOBA against LH pitching this season and Matzek has given up a .365 wOBA to RH hitters.
Additional Plays: Travis d’Arnaud
St. Louis at Cincinnati
| St. Louis | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| John Lackey | Vegas Moneyline | Alfredo Simon | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-126) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.724 | 0.318 | 18.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.720 | 0.314 | 15.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.749 | 0.330 | 20.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.665 | 0.296 | 15.90% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- John Lackey – Lackey was knocked around in his last start. He gave up 6 earned runs to the Brewers in Milwaukee. On the season Lackey owns a 3.91 ERA (3.42 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.4. He has had a little trouble keeping the ball in the park though as he is giving up 1.14 HR’s per 9 innings. That’s something to consider tonight against the Reds in the very HR-friendly Great American Ballpark. The Reds are finally starting to score some runs and Lackey is a bit overpriced in my eyes. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $13100 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Alfredo Simon – As predicted earlier in the season, Simon has come crashing back down to Earth. I don’t think anyone thought that his numbers were going to hold up over the course of an entire season. Since the start of August, Simon’s ERA is well over 5.00 and he is giving up a .350 wOBA to his opponents. He draws a tough matchup against the Cardinals who are always trouble in the month of September. He can be ignored for our purposes. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6500 FD, $12400 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Matt Adams – Adams finally broke out of his slump a little bit last night with a couple of hits and a run. If there was ever a place to break out of a slump, Great American Ballpark top the list. It’s one of the most HR-friendly ballparks and I like his matchup against Simon who has really struggled over the last month or so.
Additional Plays: Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday
Cincinnati
Devin Mesoraco – It’s going to be hard to find a catcher that I like more than Mesoraco tonight. Lackey is a reverse splits pitcher and, as mentioned above, has struggled to keep the ball in the park. Lackey has already given up 23 HR’s this season. Mesoraco has been red hot with 6 hits (3 HR’s) over his last 5 games.
Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton
LA Angels at Texas
| LA Angels | Texas | ||||||||
| Matt Shoemaker | Vegas Moneyline | Nick Tepesch | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAA (-155) | RIGHT | 9.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.725 | 0.318 | 22.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.731 | 0.322 | 10.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.215 | 0.620 | 0.275 | 25.70% | SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.815 | 0.360 | 11.50% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker put together a terrific month of August where he posted an ERA lower than any other starter in baseball. He is coming off of a subpar outing against the Twins though as he gave up 3 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. Shoemaker owns an elite K/9 of 8.7 and he draws a nice matchup against the Rangers who are ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. The Rangers have also been surprisingly quiet at home this season, ranking 25th in home wOBA. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8100 FD, $15350 DD, $9000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Nick Tepesch – Tepesch doesn’t have the highest ERA (4.41) in baseball, but owns one of the lowest strikeout rates. He has only struck out 4.2 batters per 9 innings this season which isn’t going to cut it in daily fantasy baseball. He basically has to pitch a gem just to reach value because he’s going to strike out very few batters along the way. The low K-rate takes him out of play tonight against the Angels. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $8950 DD, $5200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout – Trout is a monster. He’s one of the biggest guys on the field, yet he’s also one of the fastest. He made a stand-up triple look like he was just coasting around the bases last night. I still love the ballpark factor for the Angels tonight and Trout draws a fantastic matchup against Tepesch who has given up a .360 wOBA to RH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Howie Kendrick
Texas
Adrian Beltre – Beltre is the only Rangers hitter that I am going to have any exposure to tonight. He hit a HR in last night’s game which increased his wOBA at Globe Life Park to .439 on the season.
Additional Plays: None
Miami at Milwaukee
| Miami | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Jarred Cosart | Vegas Moneyline | Wily Peralta | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-133) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.711 | 0.323 | 15.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.306 | 0.842 | 0.369 | 17.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.608 | 0.272 | 14.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.627 | 0.286 | 18.10% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jarred Cosart – Since the start of August, Cosart has posted an ERA under 2.00 while holding opponents under a .235 wOBA. He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (5.6 per 9 innings), but he has averaged 5 K’s over his last 3 starts. Tonight he faces a Brewers offense that is ranked 10th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. I would like Cosart a lot more if this game were being played in Marlins Park, but Miller Park is a tough place to pitch. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6900 FD, $12150 DD, $6300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Wily Peralta – Peralta is one of those pitchers that just keeps chugging along. He has a great fastball and pretty decent numbers on the season. He is sporting a 3.84 ERA (3.70 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.8. He does give up a high HR per fly ball rate of 15%, but he’s an extreme ground ball pitcher, so as long as he can keep it on the ground, he should be fine. Tonight he faces a Marlins offense that is ranked 22nd in wOBA on the road. The Marlins also strike out at the highest rate on the road (25.5%) of any team in baseball. I like his upside for tournaments tonight. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13100 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich is a complete player. He is one of my favorite cash game plays when he faces a RH pitcher because he has an extremely high floor. He draws a nice matchup against Peralta who has given up a .369 wOBA to LH hitters this season. He’s also been swinging a hot bat with 16 hits and 11 runs over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton
Milwaukee
Scooter Gennett – The year of the Scooter continues. He is always in play when he is facing a RH pitcher, especially when he faces one at home. Gennett owns a .365 wOBA against RH pitching and a .397 wOBA at home. He’s one of the better values at 2B tonight.
Additional Plays: Gerardo Parra, Jonathan Lucroy
Oakland at Chicago White Sox
| Oakland | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Bassitt | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | OAK (-170) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.673 | 0.296 | 23.20% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.640 | 0.284 | 21.80% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeff Samardzija – Samardzija continues to pitch well this season. He owns a 3.21 ERA with a K/9 of 8.2. The biggest issue with the shark is that his strikeouts have taken a hit ever since coming over to the American League. Tonight he faces a strikeout happy White Sox ball club, but the White Sox are a very capable offense. They are ranked 11th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Considering his high price tag, I think there are better options on the mound tonight. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8900 FD, $18300 DD, $9600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Chris Bassitt – Bassitt isn’t exactly a top prospect, but he’s a guy that has pitched well in the minors and he has great movement on his fastball. The issue is that he looked a little over-matched in his first major league start. I always like to take a wait and see approach on these young pitchers making meaningless starts at the end of the season and that’s the route that I will take with Bassitt tonight. *Rating = 3 *
Salaries: $3000 FD, $ DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Brandon Moss – Moss is only 2 for his last 27, but maybe a matchup against a minor-leaguer can get him going. His price has reached an all-time low on some sites and he should be batting in the heart of the A’s lineup.
Additional Plays: Coco Crisp, Josh Reddick
Chicago White Sox
Even though I won’t be targeting Jeff Samardzija against the White Sox, I won’t be targeting any White Sox hitters either. Samardzija has held both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season and it’s probably best to avoid the situation altogether.