MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-09-03 23:05:47

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Philadelphia at Atlanta

Philadelphia					Atlanta
David Buchanan		Vegas Moneyline			Ervin Santana		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-169)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.223	0.570	0.259	10.60%	SP vs. Left	0.283	0.765	0.335	19.30%
SP vs. Right	0.293	0.843	0.366	17.80%	SP vs. Right	0.221	0.646	0.290	25.80%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Buchanan – Buchanan has been a middle of the pack RH pitcher in his rookie season. He owns a 4.03 ERA with a K/9 of 5.6. He is producing a 49% ground ball rate and gives up just over 1 HR per 9 innings. Today he is facing a Braves offense that has really struggled against RH pitching this season. They are ranked 27th in wOBA vs. righties and strike out at a 22% clip. I would like Buchanan more if he was pitching at home, but he’s in play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $12650 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Ervin Santana – Santana is a solid option in the early slate of games. On the season he owns a 3.53 ERA with an elite strikeout rate of 8.3 K’s per 9 innings. He does tend to walk quite a few batters, but his favorable matchup against the Phillies more than makes up for it. The Phillies are ranked 29th in wOBA vs. RH pitching while striking out at a 21% clip. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9000 FD, $18300 DD, $9800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Avoid all Phillies bats today against Santana.

Atlanta

Ryan Doumit – Justin Upton is not in the lineup today and Doumit will step in and bat clean-up. He’s very cheap on almost every fantasy site and should provide some great value considering where he is batting in the lineup.

Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

Pittsburgh					St. Louis
Edinson Volquez		Vegas Moneyline			Shelby Miller		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		STL (-114)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.740	0.326	16.8%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.744	0.328	14.00%
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.668	0.299	15.5%	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.727	0.323	17.00%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edinson Volquez – Volquez is having another average season as a pitcher. He is sporting a 3.45 ERA, but his 4.30 xFIP tells another story. Volquez is averaging 6 K’s per 9 innings, but is also walking 3 batters per 9 as well. I don’t love the matchup against the Cardinals who have had the 5th best offense in baseball over the last 30 days. He’s more risk than reward in the early slate. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $14200 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Shelby Miller – Miller is not having the sophomore season that he was hoping for. He has a 4.19 ERA (4.72 xFIP) and is almost walking as many batters as he is striking out. His command has been off this season and the Cardinals have been quick to pull him when he gets himself into jams. I’m not a fan of the matchup against the Pirates who are ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5400 FD, $11350 DD, $6100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Andrew McCutchen – As the playoff race gets close to an end, the Pirates need a huge month of September from their All-Star. He’s been playing pretty well with 3 multi-hit games in his last 8, but they need him to hit another gear this month. I think he’s up to the challenge and that he starts with a big game today against Miller.

Additional Plays: Neil Walker, Josh Harrison

St. Louis

Jhonny Peralta – Adams and Carpenter are also in play against the righty, but I like Peralta because he has been swinging a hot bat and he has a great track record against Volquez. In his career, Peralta is 4/10 with 2 HR’s off of Volquez.

Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Carpenter

Washington at LA Dodgers

Washington					LA Dodgers
Jordan Zimmermann		Vegas Moneyline			Carlos Frias		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-129)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.695	0.306	19.1%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.618	0.275	25.2%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann has posted nearly identical lines in his last two outings. He gave up 2 earned runs on 7 hits while striking out 8 batters in each of those starts. On the season he owns a 2.93 ERA with a K/9 of 8.1. He draws a tough matchup against the Dodgers though as they are ranked 6th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. The best pitching options in the early slate are going to come from the OAK/SEA game. Rating = 6

Salaries: $9100 FD, $18050 DD, $10000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Carlos Frias – Frias will draw a spot start today for the Dodgers in what will be his first career major league start. He’s been pretty mediocre in the minors this season and doesn’t have an elite K-rate. The one thing that he has going for him is that the Nats haven’t faced him, but he still remains a very risky fantasy option. Rating = 4

Salaries: $3000 FD, $ DD, $5000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Anthony Rendon – Rendon is typically only targeted against lefties, but he actually hits RH pitching well also. He’s batting .272 with a .352 wOBA against rigthies this season. I like the matchup against the rookie Frias and could see him driving in a couple of runs in this one.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Adam LaRoche

LA Dodgers

Hanley Ramirez – On paper, this isn’t a great matchup as Zimmermann has been able to keep RH hitters in check this season, but Hanley has hit him well in the past. He’s 10/22 with 3 XBH’s off of Zimmermann in his career.

Additional Plays: Adrian Gonzalez

San Francisco at Colorado

San Francisco					Colorado
Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Moneyline			Christian Bergman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-140)			RIGHT		10.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.277	0.772	0.340	19.6%	SP vs. Left	0.213	0.600	0.275	18.90%
SP vs. Right	0.221	0.664	0.296	19.4%	SP vs. Right	0.364	1.164	0.494	8.70%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong is pitching in Coors Field. Last night’s game was a great example of why you should always avoid pitchers in Coors Field. The game ended 12-7. This game has the highest total of the night for a reason. Avoid Vogelsong against Colorado. Rating = 2

Salaries: $6600 FD, $13300 DD, $7000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Christian Bergman – Bergman is in the same boat as Vogelsong. Nothing against either pitcher, but I will be staying far away from both today in Coors Field. Rating = 1

Salaries: $5000 FD, $8750 DD, $5400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – The sample size is still relatively small, but far so this season, Bergman has had some serious reverse splits. He has held LH hitters under a .300 wOBA while giving up a .494 wOBA to RH hitters. Posey is coming off of a monster game last night and should be targeted in ALL leagues.

Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Angel Pagan, Joe Panik

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – Dickerson is on my radar every time the Rockies are facing a RH pitcher, especially when the game is at home. Dickerson owns a .409 wOBA against RH pitching and a .458 wOBA at home. He draws a terrific matchup against Vogelsong who has struggled vs. LH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Justin Morneau, Charlie Blackmon, Drew Stubbs, Josh Rutledge

Seattle at Oakland

Seattle					Oakland
Felix Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Jon Lester		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-120)			LEFT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.200	0.510	0.229	24.1%	SP vs. Left	0.245	0.653	0.290	26.40%
SP vs. Right	0.201	0.603	0.266	30.4%	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.622	0.277	24.60%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Felix Hernandez – This should be a pitcher’s duel. Two of the best pitchers in the American League square off in Oakland today. Felix has had a career year with a 2.23 ERA and a K/9 of 9.3. He has kept his walks down this season and gives up very few HR’s. Today he is facing an A’s offense that is right around the league average in wOBA over the last 30 days. Don’t let the A’s scare you off of King Felix in this one. He’s an elite fantasy option. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $10800 FD, $21300 DD, $11700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jon Lester – Lester has pitched well this season and he has fit in well with this A’s pitching staff. On the year, he has a 2.55 ERA with a K/9 of 9.1. Those numbers are close to his pitching opponent King Felix’s numbers this season. Lester is facing a Mariners offense that is ranked 29th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. While I love both pitchers in this one, I think I have to give the small edge to Lester based on the matchup. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9800 FD, $20150 DD, $11900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle / Oakland

With a game in Coors Field, you don’t need to waste any roster spots on hitters from this game.

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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