MLB Player Props for Monday, 5/4: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect from Payton Tolle, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Randy Vasquez? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, May 4, 2026. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Monday’s MLB slate will feature 12 games, beginning at 5:40 p.m. ET with the Mets against the Rockies.
The MLB weather could once again pose some problems for hitters to begin the new week, with colder temperatures in Colorado and San Francisco. As always, be sure to keep an eye on the forecast before committing to any wagers!
Below, you can find three of my favorite picks for Monday, May 4th!
Best MLB Player Props for Monday, May 4th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 5:40 PM ET on Monday, May 4th:
- Payton Tolle Over/Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Randy Vasquez Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts
Payton Tolle OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-160, FanDuel)
Tolle completed only 14 outs in his most recent turn through Boston’s rotation, but he did so on only 68 pitches. In his start prior to that one, Tolle recorded 18 outs on 93 pitches. He’s faced 20+ batters in each of his two MLB outings in 2026 and should be asked for as much length as possible today after Boston taxed their arm barn over the weekend.
Boston recalled Alec Gamboa from the minors prior to today’s game in case they need additional length, but it’s not likely to be plan A to have him make his MLB debut this evening considering that he’s struggled to a 6.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in the minors this season. Gamboa is also a southpaw, so there aren’t any matchup reasons that Tolle would be pulled for him in the middle of an inning.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-173, Novig)
Yamamoto hasn’t been particularly efficient early in 2026, but he’s still completed at least 6 innings in 5 of his 6 turns through the Los Angeles rotation. We are getting a little bit of a buy-low spot here after he struggled in his most recent outing against the Marlins.
Tonight, Yamamoto will face a Houston lineup featuring 7 RHB. This year, Yamamoto owns a 2.47 FIP and 0.86 WHIP against RHB. Manager Dave Roberts has been vocal about not wanting to unnecessarily go to his arm barn this year. Consequently, Yamamoto should have every opportunity to record 18 outs.
Randy Vasquez OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)
BETMGMVasquez has faced at least 21 batters and recorded 3+ strikeouts in all 6 of his starts to begin 2026. Increased 4-seam velocity and more changeups against LHB have helped him post a 12% swinging-strike rate or better in 4 of those 6 outings.
Entering play, San Francisco’s offense ranks 17th in contact% on swings at pitches in the zone and 25th in contact% on swings at pitches out of the zone during the last 14 days. They have the 5th-highest chase rate in the league during that span and have taken more called strikes than the league average. Vasquez should have every opportunity to get to 4 strikeouts on Monday.
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