MLB Player Props for Monday, 7/21: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Paul Skenes, Carlos Rodon, and Bryce Elder? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, July 21st. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Monday! All 30 MLB teams are scheduled to be in action to begin the new week, with all 15 games scheduled for a 6:40 PM ET first pitch or later. Of course, that means plenty of betting opportunities on the board to consider!
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Monday, July 21st!
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Best MLB Player Props for Monday, July 21
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Monday, July 21st:
- Paul Skenes Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Carlos Rodon Over/Under 17.5 Outs Recorded
- Bryce Elder Over/Under 16.5 Outs Recorded
DRAFTKINGSPaul Skenes OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (+140, DraftKings)
In late-June, manager Don Kelly talked to the media postgame, saying that, “There’s going to be days where he [Skenes] can run for a long time, and there’s other times that we’ve got to just take care of him too, as far as him being our workhorse and understanding where he’s at.” These comments were made after Skenes allowed 4 earned runs in 4 innings against the Brewers. These words also came on the back of a stretch of starts for Skenes in which he threw 95+ pitches in 7 consecutive starts, including 105 pitches on June 19th.
In Skenes’ subsequent 3 starts, he threw 88 pitches, 78 pitches, and 78 pitches and never worked into the 6th inning, prompting more than a few people to assert that Skenes is going to be limited throughout the second half of the season. However, that is a bold claim for a couple of reasons – 1) Skenes and the Pirates talked during Spring Training about how the young right-hander was “ready for a large volume and large workload this year,” and 2) Skenes still has a very realistic chance to win National League Cy Young honors.
Reading between the lines, there does seem to be some level of caution when it comes to Skenes’ workload, but there also seems to be a willingness to let him loose in certain situations. Tonight’s start for Skenes will be the first time he’s worked in a regular season game in 10 days. He hasn’t thrown more than 78 pitches in an outing in 3 weeks. Oh, and his team was just swept by the lowly White Sox over the weekend.
If there was ever going to be a start in which Skenes has a normal leash, it’s tonight. If Skenes is reasonably efficient, he should have an opportunity to work into the 6th inning against a Detroit team that had to travel across time zones for tonight’s game after playing in Texas on Sunday Night Baseball.
Carlos Rodon OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105, DraftKings)
Rodon isn’t the most efficient starting pitcher in the big leagues, but he draws a favorable matchup against a Blue Jays offense that has been underwhelming of late against LHP. During the last 14 days, the Blue Jays rank 17th in wRC+, 17th in OPS, and 8th in ISO against LHP.
The Blue Jays are one of the more aggressive lineups in baseball, and that holds true against lefties. They rank 11th in swing% in that split during the last 2 weeks, which could mean fewer deep counts for Rodon. Factor in a taxed Yankees arm barn, and Rodon should have every opportunity to pitch into the 6th inning.
Bryce Elder OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded (+100, DraftKings)
Elder has struggled to a 7.07 ERA, 5.50 FIP, and 1.82 WHIP across his last 7 starts, but it’s abundantly clear that the Braves are going to continue to give him every opportunity to work deep into games. During those 7 starts, Elder has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 3 of the starts. In those outings, he’s faced 25 batters, 27 batters, and 29 batters.
Tonight, he gets a favorable matchup against the Giants, who rank 21st in wRC+, 24th in OPS, and 27th in ISO against RHP during the last 14 days. The Giants are also in an unenviable travel spot, coming from Toronto to Atlanta without the benefit of an off-day. Elder is averaging an efficient 3.52 pitches per batter faced during the past month. If he can be somewhat serviceable this evening, he should have an opportunity to come out for the 6th inning.
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