MLS Plays: Saturday, July 11th

by Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza) Last Updated 2015-08-07 14:02:44

Let’s talk about scripts.

No, not those kinds of scripts (This isn’t the right place for it), the other kind. The kind that tells a story, and allows us, the viewer to watch it play out before our eyes and through that story, an outcome of results can affect whether we are successful in whatever endeavor or not. Today, I’ll focus on how the script of a soccer game can truly affect how the leaderboard changes over the course of a given slate. Soccer is a game of scripts, it’s a beautiful dance between two teams trying to control the midfield and create opportunities for their front playing players to attack the goal and to shoot on the target and maybe convert that shot into a goal. The scripts are plenty, team A has a stronger midfield and can control possession for a period and thus has a better chance at breaking through and creating more opportunities. Team B has a stout defense that is more than capable of holding Team A at bay and disallowing any true opportunities that can lead to something positive happening. These are things that may or may not show up in the numbers.

There is also room for error. A team with a strong midfield may be over-exposing itself and may have a back line that is vulnerable to counter attacks. A team in a good spot that controls possession for 60%+ of the game can end up losing a match 1-0 for those exact reasons. It’s unpredictable, but it can happen. There isn’t much you can do about it.

The script can also change to an improv when there are enough key players missing from a team due to international commitments or injuries. Backups want to prove themselves and non-contributors may want to assert their abilities to attack and showcase their offensive skills. This is where the mindset of the manager comes into play. He’s the director of this script and he’s opposed by another director with equal ambitions in winning a match and getting all three points. So while we can’t always have a pre-defined script for soccer matches, it’s important to use whatever knowledge we can get our hands on to try to predict the potential outcome of a match, and through that we can achieve success in forming our daily fantasy soccer teams.

This is where I can come in, when I do my research I try to see which matches have the potential to deliver some goals, and which ones can be defensive struggles. I like heavy home favorites as my go-to cash game plays, and I avoid heavy road underdogs as they more often than not, fail to produce reliable results. For today, I’ll be giving position-by-position selections with an eye for potential game-scripts. So keep that in mind, if one of my selections ends up not starting, the first question to ask is “what does that do to the potential game script?” If you believe it enhances the odds of a certain team to win, then go for that players’ replacement. If you can see reason to doubt the original narrative/script that led me to selecting said player, then maybe it’s time to go elsewhere on that team, or maybe even the opposing team.

With that, I’ll begin my player-by-player analysis and we can leave the discussion regarding the other kind of scripts for another forum.

Before we begin, however…

It’s midsummer, rain seems to be creeping into our daily fantasy baseball games, and as such, we can expect the rain to also be a consideration for daily fantasy MLS. I am not a forecaster, but I urge you all to look at the weather for the cities in which the games are being played, and at least consider the possibility of lightning ending a match prematurely.

Also worth considering is the Gold Cup is currently underway, and there are several teams without some key players, so you’ll want to make sure you check the lineups prior to lock in order to avoid getting a fat 0 from a key player. Nobody likes that.

NOW it’s time for the players.

Goalkeepers

Luis Robles, New York Red Bulls, $5,700 – I highly advise paying up for goalkeeper this week. The New York Red Bulls are playing against the New England Revolution at home. On the season, the Revs average 9.2 shots per game away from the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. But they’re not in Gillete this week, in fact, they’re in Red Bull Arena. To make matters worse, On the season, NYRB enjoyed 56.5% of possession while at home, while NE has only 47.4% of possession. This is shaping up to be a game where Robles has the biggest odds of grabbing the win, and could even face a few shots that may lead to a save or two.

Sean Johnson, Chicago Fire, $3,400 – For the second option at keeper, Sean Johnson makes some sense if you remember that Seattle may be missing a few key pieces including Dempsey, Pappa, Martins and Brad Evans. Johnson is not a safe pick by any stretch of the imagination as Seattle still has some players that can scare me away. However, if you’re looking to spend elsewhere, then Chicago may end up being the right team to invest in defensively.

Other Goalkeepers: Clint Irwin (Colorado, $4,900), Tally Hall (Orlando, $3,900)

Defenders

Luke Boden, Orlando City FC $3,800 – I always try to go cheap on defenders and focus on teams that have a shot at a shut-out or defenders who are part of the teams’ offense. Boden fits both categories. While Dallas is coming off two wins in their last two games, I’m still not a believer in their ability to perform at that level on the road. They are facing an Orlando team that has managed some excellent results against opponents at home and with Boden having had 18 key passes in 962 (averages a key pass every 54th minute) He is involved in the offense in a way that can lead to good results. Factor in his price, and if you roster Tally Hall, you can go with two players that can have a good day.

Ambroise Oyongo, Montreal Impact, $4,000)* – Another cheaper option if you want an Impact defender who can create shots for himself. Toia and Ciman are two other options, but I prefer Oyongo for where he usually ends up touching the ball (mostly in the final third) and his ability to deliver crosses. At his price you can easily roster more players at higher prices at the forward and midfield spot.

Other Defenders to consider: Tyrone Mears (Seattle, $6,000), Laurent Ciman (Montreal, $5,000), Chris Tierney (New England $5,700), Matt Miazga (New York, $4,500), Eric Gehrig (Chicago, $3,900)

Midfielders

Ignacio Piatti, Montreal Impact $7,800 – With Montreal at home against the Crew as a slight favorite I will look to Ignacio Piatti as a pick in the midfield to have a good day. Piatti is coming off a goal in the last two weeks and with the Impact looking better and playing a Columbus crew that doesn’t look as strong as they did earlier in the season, Piatti makes a great play to at least get some attacking going.

Cristian Maidana, Philadelphia Union $7,000 – This is a GPP play. Not a whole lot of people will give Philly a good look with Portland coming to town. Playing on the road, Portland will be vulnerable at defense which puts Maidana in an excellent spot. With a good portion of fantasy players looking towards Columbus and Real Salt Lake players, Maidana may actually be a bit underowned and this might be a good week to take advantage of that.

Other Midfielders To Consider: Mauro Diaz (Dallas, $8,700), Diego Valeri (Portland, $8,500), Javier Morales (Real Salt Lake, $7,200), Federico Higuain (Columbus, $9,000), Thomas (Seattle, $3,500)

Forwards

Bradley Wright-Phillips, New York Red Bulls $11,400 – With a lack of options at forward, BWP might be highly owned. The only player that may challenge him at ownership percentage is Kei Kamara. Both Kamara and BWP are in excellent spots, but I prefer Wright-Phillips due to the matchup with New England who have been reeling recently.

C.J. Sapong, Philadelphia Union $6,400 – Sapong doesn’t get credit, nor does he get recognition, but he’s a very skilled player and at just 26 years old he’s going to be good for years to come. Philly is facing a tough challenge with Portland coming to town, but I believe that their defense is suspect and that Sapong, who has scored or assisted in six of his last seven matches. At only $6,4K, Sapong is a great price this week.