MLS Targets: Saturday, April 25th
Welcome to the second week of our RotoGrinders coverage of DraftKings MLS soccer. Now that we’ve made it through the first week of the American version of the beautiful game, we can stop and learn from our journey last week.
Here are a few things that I’ve learned about my research method based on the short sighted results of one game week:
1) The odds are ever in your favor – After picking my teams solely on odds as presented by some vegas outlets, I found that I was somewhat accurate in my evaluation of the matches. Dallas vs Toronto was indeed a goal fest as evidenced by the final score line. My selection of the Columbus goalkeeper against Orlando City proved profitable as he maintained a clean sheet. Also, the game match with the least goals scored was Real Salt Lake vs Vancouver, as predicted by the odds. So we’ll keep going to vegas in determining game flow, at least until I’ve developed a feel for all the teams that are on display every week.
2) A team in decent form defensively beats out a team in good form offensively, at least when it comes to goal scoring. When DC United faced the Houston Dynamo last week, Houston was coming off a 3-0 week and DC hadn’t allowed any goals against anybody not named the New York Redbulls. While DC didn’t maintain a clean sheet, they did however prove to be a good squad as they held Houston to a single goal scored and the final was a 1-1 draw.
3) Rain delays happen in MLS too – If you’re used to baseball by now and read our excellent content and weather performance provided by the great Kevin Roth, you already know to check the weather. However, did you know that MLS games can be delayed or even cancelled because of weather problems? If you didn’t then you must have been sweating bullets when the Dallas/Toronto game was delayed by more than four hours with a lightning delay as it threatened to be cancelled and erase all three Dallas first half goals. The game ended up finishing the second half and Toronto clawed its way back to make it a close one. However, it might be time to be cognizant of the weather when targeting these games. (Though, I don’t expect lightning storms to happen too frequently as that’s a rare occurrence as it is)
4) Don’t fall for big names even in big games – Michael Bradley is who I’m talking about here. I saw he was starting in central midfield for Toronto, and with the game being such a high over/under match I thought for sure he was a target. When the match started and I had him for 4.1% owned, I gave a silent fist pump and hoped he would come through for me. Well, he didn’t. Bradley hasn’t had a significant moment yet for Toronto and had I paid attention and taken his teammate Sebastian Giovinco instead I’d have been rewarded with Toronto’s two second half goals.
5) Follow the process. I had a somewhat even MLS debut, cashed a couple of teams in the GPP I entered, and my main lineup would have easily cashed in cash games had I entered them. For me the process is evaluation of game by game and the results will follow through. Also, by midseason I’ll have the goal of watching each MLS team play at least 3-4 times to get a better feel for how they hold up to the statistical analysis.
6) Finally, have fun. MLS should be a continuation of the fun we had following the Premier League and the Champions League this season. I expect that over time the GPPs will get bigger and the participation will increase. Plus, the added bonus of having the games at a reasonable hour here in North America makes it very easy to follow along and not lose sleep (unless you’re getting up at 6AM on a Saturday to write this article.) So, without further interruptions, let’s get to the picks.
Goalkeepers
With only four games on the docket, the goalkeeper situation will be interesting to decipher. Three out of the four matches have somewhat big favorites in Columbus, New England and Vancouver. All three are relatively even when it comes to the over/under. However, the biggest underdog is Philadelphia Union facing Columbus.
If we examine it from the perspective of which teams score are least likely to score, analysis points to Real Salt Lake as a team that doesn’t hold possession very well, does not take many shots, and doesn’t score many goals. Moreover, they are coming off a home loss to Vancouver which puts them squarely on my radar as a team to target from a defensive perspective.
DC United is highly ranked and their Keepers are pretty expensive despite the odds against them. This makes targeting Vancouver Whitecaps as a safe cheap play that can lead to profitability.
Top GK plays
Bobby Shuttleworth, New England Revlotion $4,600
Steve Clark, Columbus Crew $5,300
David Ousted, Vancouver Whitecaps $4,200
Defenders
Following the same logic as above, I’ll be targeting defenders that are on the teams that are expected to get the W and potentially the clean sheet. Moreover, I’ll look for defenders that tend to go forward and produce crosses and assist opportunities (known as key passes). This pushes me squarely on a few defenders that could be pivotal in the success of my teams this week.
Chris Tierney, New England Revolution $4,000 – With Real Salt Lake being a team that doesn’t hold possession very well, it’s very tempting to think that they will be held back in their zone most of the game. Putting Tierney as a top option given his number of key passes (10) and shots (5) this season so far.
Hernan Grana, Columbus Crew $3,900 – Columbus is also in a good spot, if you choose to roster Clark as your goalkeeper, then either full back should prove useful, however Grana is my choice as he delivers crosses, shots and has potential for assists with 10 Key passes this season.
Other Defenders to Target:: Steven Beitashour (Vancouver, $4,000), DeMarcus Beasley (Houston, $5,000), Maurice Edu (Philadelphia $5,200)
Midfielders
For the Midfielders and Forwards I’ll be looking for teams that are looking to fire on goal and score and are in a good position to do so. This leaves me with a few very tasty targets that hopefully can be affordable with the savings that we can get with the defenders and goalkeepers listed above.
Kelyn Rowe, New England Revolution $6,500 – 15 shots and 5 key passes to start the season. He’s touching the ball for the Revolution almost 10% of the time when he’s on the field. Rowe should be a decent choice this week as NER will look to score and try to win this game to move up in the standings.
Nicolas Mezquida, Vancouver Whitecaps $4,400 – the left winger for Vancouver should be a great play at his discounted price. Though, he does come with some risk associated as he gets subbed off and has only played 394 minutes in 8 matches. He does however provide shots and key passes. And while he has no assists on the season, he’s due for a breakthrough in that department soon.
Other Midfielders to Target: Pedro Morales (Vancouver, $8,000), Benny Feilhaber (Kansas City, $7,300)
Forwards
Octavio Rivero, Vancouver Whitecaps $9,400 – The most expensive forward option is Rivero playing for the Whitecaps at home against DC United. Vancouver has led the league in shots taken and goals scored and they are lead at the front with Rivero taking the majority of these shots. With five goals so far this season, and 27 shots, Rivero is the top option at forward this week and if you can fit him in, do so.
Kei Kamara, Columbus Crew $9,100 – Columbus plays an attacking 4-2-3-1 formation that affords any of the front four players the opportunity to score the ball. From a pure conversion rate perspective, Kamara is the best option in that front. He’s taken 28 shots and scored 4 goals this season so far. Kamara’s opponent this week is Philadelphia who have allowed the most goals on the season at 13 and are the team most likely to concede today. Kamara is my 1A option for forward this week.
Other Forwards to Target: Kekuta Menneh (Vancouver Whitecaps $5,200), Juan Agudelo (New England, $6,400), Dominic Dwyer (Sporting Kansas City, $9,000), Fredrico Higuain (Columbus Crew, $7,500), Giles Barnes (Houston Dynamo, $7,600)