MLS Targets: Saturday, June 27th
It’s rivalry week in Major League Soccer (MLS) and we have six matches on the docket for today. Of course the big rivalry matches are saved for the Sunday ESPN and FOX Sports 1 games but today we have a good bit of intrigue as well. There will be some major weather concerns as some of these games are in places that are HEAVY with rain. I’m going to be utilizing Kevin Roth’s weather forecast for MLB to get an idea of where the trouble spots are and try to adapt them to our games this week.
This week the setup of the games will not be conducive to a general picks article, so I’ll do a bunch of quick hits on the matchups and analyzing which games I prefer to target and which games look to be in good shape for fantasy purposes.
Philadelphia Union vs Montreal Impact
The first thing I notice here is two teams that are out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference at the moment and both are coming off mixed performances in the last few weeks. At home in the last few weeks the Union defeated the top seed in each conference in different weeks (Seattle and DC United), and while both games have come in different circumstances, the Union are favorites in this matchup against the Impact. Montreal, on the other hand, is coming off five matches where they’ve allowed 13 goals (2.6 per game) and have looked like a different team away from home.
Weather concerns
“That heavy rain that is headed to Philly today is currently over PIT. We also have a Flash Flood Watch in this game. The good news here is that the steady rain is slowly clearing the area (or at least will be by game time). Back behind the steady rain we have another shot at a line of thunderstorms, which would cause a mid-game delay if the line moves over PIT, but we could likely wait it out. My biggest concern here is if the fields hold up to the rain we are currently seeing. Assuming the fields are OK, the weather should be just decent enough to try to get a game in. I’ll go YELLOW, with a hint of ORANGE for my worries about the field.”
Now, this forecast is specific to Citizens Bank Park (Phillies home stadium), which is 14.8 miles away from PPL Park where the Union play their home matches. Does it apply here? I believe it does. There is significant risk with targeting player in this match as a lightning strike can lead to 30-minute delays, and MLS has not been shy about calling games and just postponing to another day. Taking players in this matchup should be a GPP endeavor only and an extremely risky one at that.
Players to target
If you choose to ignore the weather warning or think the game will eventually take place and want the GPP edge for extremely low ownership, you should definitely look at the forwards from both matches, CJ Sapong (Philadelphia, $6,100) and Jack McInerney (Montreal, $6,200). Sapong has goals in four straight matches and five out of six leading up to today. McInerney is a skilled striker who takes his chances but has had trouble converting lately. Both teams are playing on short rest and I would stay away from the defenses. In the midfield Cristian Maidana (Philadelphia, $6,400) and Ignacio Piatti (Montreal, $6,500) both make some fine pivots at the middle tier pricing options.
Toronto FC vs DC United
Two teams coming off wins in the midweek fixtures and coming into another game with some weather concerns (more on that in a minute). DC United is currently the league leader in points and Toronto are fourth in the eastern conference. This matchup carries some importance as Toronto has only played 14 matches to United’s 19. Toronto needs to close the gap in points today in front of their home fans where they are 3-2 on the season and have let in 6 goals in 5 games. DC United on the other hand have only won one of their last five fixtures away from the capital and will be looking to make some noise in today’s game.
Weather Concerns
Looking at the storm path, it appears that the closest comp for Toronto in terms of weather is Detroit and according to the Kevin Roth weather forecast for the MLB game in Detroit today:
Detroit is seeing the northern flank of this system, and much like the other two, it ain’t pretty. This is just a raw, ugly day. Rain, thunderstorms, highs only in the 60s, and 40mph wind gusts (more on that later)… really not good baseball weather. Could we see some breaks in the rain? Sure. Will we? Eh, I wouldn’t count on enough clearing to play baseball. I’m putting this at ORANGE, and again will have to look at radar trends before lock when I could switch it RED, but I don’t much like it.
This isn’t good soccer weather either and if the game goes it will be one where both teams will have trouble controlling the ball with the high winds and the rain on the pitch. The risk of thunderstorms makes me feel that this match may end up getting called. It’s an ugly weather day in the northeast and Toronto looks to be on the northern flank of the storm system, I’ll trust Kevin on this one and stay away from this game.
Players to Target
Sebastian Giovinco (Toronto, $10,800) might be one of the best strikers in MLS right now, He took 13 shots in his last match with 5 on target and 1 goal and an assist. He’s simply a must play if this game goes. With the weather concern being a very real one, he’ll be on one or two of my teams, but I can’t recommend him for cash games. Also worth looking at are Fabian Espindola (DC United, $8,000) and Chris Rolfe (DC United, $7,700) as both are very serviceable attackers who can get shots off and exploit a defense that has allowed the second-most shots per game at home on the season. In the midfield I’d look at Michael Bradley (Toronto, $6,300) who’s price has not risen despite his increased level of performance lately and the team has come to rely on his attack and distribution skills more often in recent weeks.
New England Revolution vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver is on their fourth game in a row away from home and in the middle of a long five game road trip, they visit the New England Revolution who only have one win in their last 9 matches and are in dire need of a winning performance this week. Vancouver will be a tough opponent for the Revolution to defeat, and the Whitecaps have shown that they will not just lay down and concede defeat on the road. I expect this matchup to be an open affair with plenty of scoring chances for both sides. Vegas likes the home team in this one, but Vancouver are coming off a week long rest and New England had a matchup midweek.
Weather Concerns
The storms will be reaching Boston tonight, however, according to the forecasts the rain won’t hit the area till around 9pm and with this match starting at 7:30pm local time there is a good chance this game gets in and as such, I won’t be concerned about the weather with this one.
Players to Target
David Ousted (Vancouver $3,600) is a Vegas underdog but he’s also a superior goalkeeper who is coming off a match where he saved two penalty kicks. He’s a good GPP option at keeper. If I am going to target the visiting team, then Pedro Morales (Vancouver, $8,900) and Octavio Rivero (Vancouver, $9,100) are solid GPP options, but their price may be formidable and keep you from taking expensive plays elsewhere. Another cheap option is Kekuta Manneh (Vancouver, $5,500) who has 18 key passes on the season with only 1 assist to show for it. On the other side of the ball, New England boasts an attack that features Charlie Davies (New England, $9,400) receiving passes from Juan Agudelo (New England, $7,800) and Lee Nguyen (New England, $8,000). For New England, targeting Bobby Shuttleworth or Chris Tierney would be a good move as both have been in decent form, however, as noted above, the Revs haven’t been getting the win lately which slightly hurts Shuttleworth’s point expectancy if he does not get the win bonus.
Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids
This may be my favorite game to target for tonight as the Rapids visit SKC for what will prove to be a fun match if you’re a Kansas City fan. Colorado is returning from a tough 2-0 loss to Orlando and SKC is very well rested heading into this matchup. At home in their last six matches, SKC have no losses and five wins, they’ve conceded just four goals and scored 13 and are in great overall form. Colorado is on the other end of the spectrum in terms of performance. They are winless in their last 5 away matches and Vegas doesn’t give them much of a chance in this one. I expect them to fall over and I would not mind a Kansas City centered cash team as they should perform well today.
Weather Concerns
Lucky for us, there are no weather concerns today and as such, target this game with no hesitation.
Players to Target
One of the safest keepers on the slate is Tim Melia (SKC, $5,700) and for his price you’ll have to go cheap elsewhere, luckily for us, there is value in the midfield and potentially in the defense once lineups come out. As for the defenders for SKC, I like Jalil Anibaba (SKC, $5,100) and Matt Besler (SKC, $4,400) who are both capable of producing fantasy points. Besler has two assists on the season however he’s delivered 11 key passes and in gerenal touches the ball about 11% of the time while on the field. Anibaba is the safer defense option as he delivers more crosses on a regular basis and plays as an advanced full back who helps with the offense. Speaking of offense, Kansas has three players that I want to target on offense today, Graham Zusi ($6,800), the USA midfielder who will be heading to the Gold Cup soon and will want to put on a good display in front of the home crowd. Dominic Dwyer ($8,900), who returned last week and scored a goal and tallied 19 fantasy points after missing out with injury. And finally, Krisztian Nemeth ($6,500), the talented and skilled youngster who has shown the ability to score multiple goals if given the opportunity.
On the other side of the ball, Colorado does have some talent to take advantage of if you’re feeling risky. Luis Solignac is priced very cheap at $4,000 and if he gets the start at forward he may surprise, however, this is an extreme GPP play and not the safest option.
Real Salt Lake vs Columbus Crew
Columbus travels west to take on Real Salt Lake in a match that will be very close according to Vegas odds. In their last six home games, Salt Lake have only managed 9 points on two wins, three ties and a loss. Scoring five goals and conceding three as they usually try to slow things down at home and attempt to set the tone. Undoubtedly the altitude plays a role as visiting teams likely can’t maintain their momentum through the entire match. The Crew come into this match having finally broken a string of winless matches as they managed to defeat the Revolution 2-1 at home midweek. Their away form hasn’t been that great however as they’re winless in their last six and have only managed 4 goals while conceding 11. Combining these two factors leads me to believe this may be a tough match for both sides with the home team slightly edging the away side.
Weather Concerns.
Much like Kansas, there are no weather concerns in Salt Lake today.
Players to Target
The league’s top goal scorer is always a player to target when he’s in the lineup, and as such Kei Kamara (Columbus, $8,800) is a good value option today given his skill level. His price will never be this low, but the matchup this week dictates that he’s probably not going to have the usual success he has had in recent weeks. Away teams in Salt Lake City have only managed 10.4 shots per game and the overall team rating is the third worst in the league. Teams in general aren’t as good when they go to Utah and as such we downgrade their players in the altitude.
If the players aren’t going to produce much, then maybe we should target defenders and keepers in this match. Steve Clark (Columbus, $3,400) and Nick Rimando (RSL, $5,500) both make great options, however, Clark is the better choice as he’s nearly $2K cheaper , while Rimando is the safer choice. It all depends on what you want to do with your roster.
In defense, I would consider targeting both Jordan Allen (RSL, $5,700) and Waylon Francis (Columbus, $4,400) as they both can provide offense and passes to their teammates that can lead to offensive production.
For Real Salt Lake, they are missing Javier Morales and Alvaro Saborio and will look to rely on Joao Plata, Luke Mulholland and Kyle Beckerman who can all score or assist if Real Salt Lake manage a goal or two.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles Galaxy
We have our second rivalry game of the weekend (the first being Friday night between Houston and Dallas, and not part of the slate) and this one pits San Jose and Los Angeles. The Galaxy are the better team and are coming off two games in which they’ve demolished their opponents with five goals each match. San Jose are also coming off a win in their last one against Seattle 2-0. And while the Galaxy are playing their third match in 8 days, the Earthquakes got to rest entering this one. I expect this one to be a good even matchup however, with both sides threatening goal and with the away team ultimately coming away with the win.
Weather Concerns
This is Southern California. They don’t get rain here.
Players to Target
With LA being the Vegas favorite, it fits to target the goalkeeper, and with his price tag being where it is, rostering Jaime Penedo (LA Galaxy, $4,700) is almost a no-brainer. With Robbie Keane (LA Galaxy, $9,600) returning from injury, the team has managed to push forward and alleviate the threat from their keeper. I will surely be targeting Keane as long as he’s priced so comfortably and cheap. Other players to target include Chris Wondolowski (San Jose, $10,200) who will probably be low owned due to his price and due to people targeting Penedo. However, I will have some shares of Wondo in my teams. He has 48 shots on the season with 8 goals, he is always a threat to score a goal against any team, and especially at home.
Also worth considering are the LA Galaxy midfielders, Stefan Ishizaki (LA Galaxy, $8,600) and Juninho (LA Galaxy, $7,500).