MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: Noche UFC - Silva vs. Delgado

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights)

Created Sep 10, 2026

Last Updated 2026-09-11 01:24:33 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on Noche UFC – Silva vs. Delgado.

Noche UFC, a yearly promotional celebration of Mexican Independence Day, has touched down in Glendale, Arizona for the first time. Top featherweight contender “Lord” Jean Silva defends his ranking against Arizona’s own Jose Delgado, a surging Mexican-American prospect with undeniable fight-ending power. The card will feature Latin American talent throughout, including 7 athletes representing the green, white, and red of Mexico, beginning with the first fight of the night. Regina “Kill Bill” Tarin will look to start the night off strong for the Mexican contingent, but she is taking a massive step up in competition in her sophomore appearance.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon!

Noche UFC – Silva vs. Delgado: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Regina Tarin ($9,100) vs. JJ Aldrich ($7,100)

Fight Odds: -310 Tarin vs. +230 Aldrich
Weight Class: 125lb. (Women’s Flyweight)

Regina Tarin (1-0 UFC) soundly defeated Ernesta Kareckaite (1-2 UFC) in her short-notice UFC debut in February, earning the nod via unanimous decision (2× 30-27, 1× 29-28). The 21-year-old fighter represents the UFC Performance Institute in Mexico, she throws a high volume of strikes, and she has finished 6 out of 8 of her professional victories inside the distance. “Kill Bill” is undefeated as a professional, but she was knocked out in her only listed amateur fight in March of 2022. Most of her professional wins came against women who are under .500 or barely clinging to a .500 record. Tarin does have experience fighting in the IMMAF Youth Championships, but her level of competition and experience is simply not commensurate with her opponent, someone who has fought 22 times as a professional and 17 times inside the octagon. The path to victory for Tarin in this fight is to outwork Aldrich, lean on her physicality, and look for eye-catching, damaging strikes that could produce a finish.

JJ Aldrich (11-6 UFC) is not a particularly exciting fighter, but her results in the world’s premiere fighting organization speak for themselves. Aldrich has outperformed market expectations as both a favorite (over a 12.5% win rate vs. expected) and as an underdog (over a 14% win rate vs. expected), shining in fights that GTD (go to decision), and posting an impressive 10-4 record in UFC decisions. Aldrich doesn’t have a flashy game, but she sticks to fundamental boxing work behind her jab, she is a recently promoted BJJ black belt with competent wrestling, and she has a 61% striking defense rate over a large sample size. What stands out the most to me about this matchup is the gulf in experience. Aldrich had her first amateur fight in 2010, her first professional fight in 2014, and she was on the Ultimate Fighter Season 23 in 2016. Aldrich has 10 years of sweat equity in the company, she showed in her last fight she is capable of fighting and winning over the judges in front of a hostile crowd (beating a Canadian in Canada), and her only stoppage losses in the last decade have come against Maycee Barber (10-3 UFC), Erin Blanchfield (8-1 UFC), and Tatiana Suarez (9-1 UFC).

If you wanted to favor Regina Tarin in this fight because she attempts a high volume of strikes, she should have crowd support, and she has shown more finishing upside, I would understand that. What I don’t fully understand is why Aldrich is a +2xx underdog if the fight is favored to GTD at a -2xx clip. Aldrich trains with a very solid gym (Tiger Beetle MMA) at elevation in Colorado, she is extremely proven in UFC fights that hit the scorecards, and her opponent absorbed 7 strikes per minute against the far less proven Kareckaite in February. Tarin is the fighter with all of the pressure on her shoulders, she is still a developing talent, and I think this fight could easily be a case of too much too soon. Give me Aldrich for the upset. I think her straight punches, footwork, clinch breaking, and vet savvy can earn her a hard-fought decision.

Prediction: JJ Aldrich defeats Regina Tarin via SDEC

Sean King ($8,400) vs. Jessie Rosas ($7,800)

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