MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 305 – Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.
The UFC is headed down under for a grudge match that just so happens to be an Undisputed UFC Middleweight Title Fight between defending champion “Stillknocks” Dricus Du Plessis and former champion Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya. Adesanya was stunned as a -700 favorite in his last fight against Sean Strickland, but Strickland dropped the belt before Adesanya could seek revenge. Now the winner of this fight seems likely to draw into a Sean Strickland rematch regardless of who gets the job done.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown for UFC 305 – Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
Carlos Prates $9,200 vs. Li Jingliang $7,000
Fight Odds: -355 Prates vs. +270 Jingliang
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)
Carlos Prates is one of the most recent stand out products from the Dana White Tuesday Night Contender Series. Prates has recorded 3 knockdowns in as many UFC appearances, and he built up a bounty of professional experience outside the octagon with 19 professional wins and 17 finishes.
Li Jingliang is well regarded by hardcore fight fans, and he has delivered many times as an underdog. The difficulty with backing “Leech” coming into this fight is that he hasn’t competed in the octagon since 2022 (in a losing effort vs. Daniel Rodriguez) and he has dealt with a myriad of injuries and health setbacks outside the octagon.
Now the Leech is reporting back to the octagon at 36 years of age taking on a man 5 years his junior who will possess a 6” reach advantage (68” vs. 62”) and who stands 1” taller (6’1” vs. 6’). Prates is a Fighting Nerds representative with an underrated ground game and lethal skills in all positions.
The biggest drawback with Prates’ style is he can be a bit low-volume on the feet, preferring to pick his spots rather than firing empty activity. Leech has made a career out of scoring big upsets inside the octagon, but oftentimes he was doing so opposite elder statesmen in the welterweight division. Now he is trying to hold serve against a dangerous oncoming Brazilian, and I think Prates has the tools to get the win on the feet or on the mat.
Prediction: Carlos Prates defeats Li Jingliang via Stoppage Rd. 1/2
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights