MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 306 – O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2024-09-14 22:25:58 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

Dana White is writing a love letter to the Mexican people and their combat sports heritage by investing in a movie quality multimedia production at the Sphere in Las Vegas. The card is replete with rising Mexican talents. The co-main event of the evening features a title defense from Mexico’s own Women’s Flyweight Champion, Alexa Grasso, who defends in a trilogy against Valentina “Bullet” Shevchenko. The main event is a long-awaited meeting between UFC Bantamweight kingpin “Suga” Sean O’Malley and the Georgian “Machine” Merab Dvalishvili. The card appears to have the right cast for a violent affair in the sphere.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown for UFC 306 – O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili

Ronaldo Rodriguez $8,600 vs. Ode Osbourne $7,600

Fight Odds: -158 Rodriguez vs. +128 Osbourne
Weight Class: 125lb. (Flyweight)

Ronaldo Rodriguez failed to make the roster as a 21 year old in the Contender Series against Jerome Rivera in August of 2020, but he stayed committed to his dreams. When he got the opportunity to fight Denys Bondar (0-3 UFC) on a UFC event in Mexico City, he capitalized, securing a 2nd round submission victory as Bondar fatigued.

Rodriguez is still a very raw prospect. He has been outlanded on significant strikes in both of his UFC/DWCS fights, and he was taken down 4 times by Bondar. That being said, he is a young fighter with a lot of heart and grit, and he should be getting better between each performance inside the octagon working alongside UFC veteran Jose “Shorty” Torres.

Ode Osbourne has been struggling in his recent UFC run, but he is a veteran of 9 fights inside the octagon, and he will look to leverage that experience against his younger foe. Osbourne’s biggest deficit in the promotion has been his grappling, conceding 6 takedowns and 3 submissions in his UFC tenure. On the feet, Osbourne should have the length, the speed, and kicking game to test Ronaldo Rodriguez, particularly when both fighters are fresh.

Rodriguez’s biggest advantage on paper is his durability and his submission upside. Osbourne has 4 professional losses via submission and 2 losses via KO/TKO, while Rodriguez has only lost competitive split decisions at this point in his career. If Rodriguez can drag Osbourne into deep waters, he is likely to have the better pace late. Osbourne has several split decisions on his resume that are linked to his cardio deficiencies.

Prediction: Ronaldo Rodriguez defeats Ode Osbourne via TKO3/SDEC

Daniel Zellhuber $9,000, vs. Esteban Ribovics $7,200