MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 309 - Jones vs. Miocic

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2024-11-16 16:28:53 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

UFC 309 is’t the biggest combat sports event of the weekend, but it is one of the most important nights in the history of the UFC’s heavyweight division. Stipe Miocic is widely considered among the best heavyweights in UFC history, while Jon Jones is ubiquitously regarded as an all-time great MMA fighter regardless of weight class. Dana White considers Jon Jones the greatest UFC fighter of all time and the pound-for-pound number one fighter in the sport. The bout is unfortunately past its sell-by date and being overshadowed by a boxing match between a YouTuber turned combat athlete and a once great champion going on 30 years post his prime. Thankfully, the card also features some exciting up and comers as well as a rematch of a classic fight between Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira that should produce fireworks.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 309 – Jones vs. Miocic

Mauricio Ruffy ($9,600) vs. James Llontop ($6,600)

Fight Odds: -950 Ruffy vs. +590 Llontop
Weight Class: 165lb. (Catchweight)

Mauricio Ruffy has looked the part of a high-level fighter since arriving on DWCS. He beat a credentialed fighter in Magomedaliev in an absolute dog fight, taking out the larger man with calf kicks, a well-timed spinning elbow, and relentless ground and pound from the top position. I picked Ruffy as an underdog in that matchup because he was so electric with his striking, and he comes from a great grappling gym in Team Fighting Nerds, the hottest team in MMA today. His encore performance against Jamie Mullarkey was a systematic beat down that culminated in a first-round stoppage. Din Thomas compared him on the broadcast to a young Conor McGregor.

James Llontop is 0-2 off the trot in the UFC, and he needs a win in a big way to establish himself as a player in the lightweight division. His loss to Slava Borshchev showed his limitations, as he failed to establish a grappling advantage over one of the worst grapplers in the division, and he poked him in the eye before his biggest moment of striking success. Llontop can make this a somewhat competitive fight if he can out-volume Ruffy and continue showing an awesome chin, but he was getting battered by Borshchev last time out, and he got submitted by Padilla on short notice as a massive favorite. He may get a contract extension for taking this on short notice, but this seems like a big ask given his skill set.

Ruffy can be a bit low volume, and that may cost him if he eventually sees the scorecards in the UFC. In this fight, I think he will be able to land many clean targets, and Llontop will be forced to attempt lousy grappling, or he will get picked apart by the cleaner, harder shots. Ruffy is acrobatic and exciting with his techniques, but he also is calculated. He took out the legs of a bigger opponent before finishing them on the ground. He tested Mullarkey’s suspect chin and hardly took any clean strikes. He is likely to take the path of least resistance against Llontop and hit, try to avoid the returns, and eventually seize the moment to finish (KO/SUB).

Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy defeats James Llontop via Stoppage Rd. 1/2

Karine Silva ($9,200) vs. Viviane Araujo ($7,000)