MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 312 - Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-02-08 19:39:05 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The octagon has touched back down in Australia for a pair of title fights. On the men’s side of the game, we get a compelling rematch between champion Dricus Du Plessis and former champion Sean Strickland with undisputed gold on the line. On the women’s side of the game, the unstoppable force that is Tatiana Suarez will encounter the immovable champion, Zhang Weili in a bout that could be her Strawweight swan song. The card is full of action and local flare, so we have plenty to discuss!

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 312 – Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

Jake Matthews ($8,800) vs. Francisco Prado ($7,400)

Fight Odds: -245 Matthews vs. +195 Prado
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)

Francisco Prado has taken a year out of the octagon to develop into his welterweight frame, and now the 22 year old looks to make a better first impression as a UFC welterweight after going 1-2 in the promotion at Lightweight. Prado lost his UFC debut in Australia as a short notice debutant against Jamie Mullarkey, conceding 3 takedowns and nearly 5 minutes of control time. He responded by sparking Ottman Azaitar in the first round and going to war with Daniel Zellhuber over 15 minutes at distance.

Jake Matthews is a much more battle-tested UFC veteran, making his 21st walk to the UFC octagon. Matthews is underwater as a UFC betting commodity because he tends to let folks down as a favorite. Matthews was knocked down 3 times and taken down 3 times by Matthew Semelsberger (5-6 UFC; cut from the promotion) en route to a unanimous decision loss as a -2xx favorite. All of his UFC wins have aged poorly except a unanimous decision victory against fan favorite “The Leech” Li Jingliang back in 2018 at 155lbs. Since moving to welterweight, Matthews’ best win is Phil Rowe (3-3 UFC), and he didn’t look particularly good in that fight.

If Matthews grapples proactively, he could look like an easy hindsight favorite, but if he plays around on the feet, he can play the role of parlay buster once again and end up on Prado’s highlight reel.

Prediction: Francisco Prado defeats Jake Matthews via KO1 or Matthews via SUB/DEC

Rodolfo Bellato ($8,500) vs. Jimmy Crute ($7,700)