MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 313 - Pereira vs. Ankalaev

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-03-08 21:18:41 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The stars are out in Vegas as the UFC’s boogeyman Alex “Poatan” Pereira looks to defend his Light Heavyweight crown against the formidable challenge of Magomed Ankalaev, a fighter who has not lost in the UFC since 2018. We will also be treated to a rematch of a controversial lightweight tilt between Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje and Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev. The card is loaded with action fights and interesting fighters, so we have plenty to break down.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 313 – Pereira vs. Ankalaev

Mauricio Ruffy ($9,400) vs. Bobby “King” Green ($6,800)

Fight Odds: -500 Ruffy vs. +360 Green
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

Mauricio Ruffy (2-0) is looking to break out as a UFC superstar by defeating a household name in Bobby “King” Green during his third pay-per-view showcase. Many people were disappointed by Ruffy’s inability to finish his last opponent James Llontop, but it is worth remembering that Llontop missed weight after agreeing to a short-notice bout at a 165lb catchweight. Despite surviving to the final horn, Llontop became the second opponent in a row Ruffy was able to knock down. On the Contender Series, he impressively out-hustled a tough Russian up at welterweight to earn his UFC contract on DWCS, so we know he can push for the finish late.

Bobby “King” Green is as battle-tested as a UFC veteran can be, but he has been physically put through the ringer in a 26-fight UFC career. Green has absorbed 5 knockdowns in the UFC, and he has been stopped with strikes 5 times as a professional, including in 3 of his last 4 losses. After getting stunned on the feet by Paddy Pimblett and diving head first into a submission attempt, I am not sure what version of Bobby Green we can expect to turn up on fight night. Now 38 years old, Green seems on the cusp of retirement, as his chin is fading, and the reflexes he relies on for defense are starting to noticeably slow down. Facing an opponent like “One Shot,” Green can not afford to have momentary lapses in focus, or it could result in a loss of consciousness. The path to victory for Green in this fight is leveraging his experience and high-volume approach to outwork his younger, less-experienced foe on the scorecards. Despite his talent and clear win via damaging strikes, Ruffy was outlanded on significant strikes against Llontop (0-3 UFC).

Bobby Green has always been a great gatekeeper in the lightweight division, but I don’t like his chances taking on a man 10 years his junior, one who has advantages in height and reach. Ruffy is the more dangerous and more durable fighter on the feet, and he should be making substantial improvements between fight camps. Green is likely to be regressing because he has absorbed a hellacious amount of damage over the course of nearly 50 professional fights. I expect Ruffy to leverage his speed, his power, and his creative offense to find the finish in the first 2 frames.

_Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy defeats Bobby Green via Stoppage Rd.1/2

Iasmin Lucindo ($8,500) vs. Amanda Lemos ($7,700)