MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 315 - Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-05-10 23:14:33 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The octagon is headed to French-speaking Montreal with two compelling title fights fit for a pay-per-view offering. In the co-main event, French fighter Manon Fiorot looks to claim the first UFC belt for France, and she is favored to do so as of this writing! The main event will feature the return of Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad against the heavy-handed Australian spark plug, three name Jack, also known as Jack Della Maddalena. The card promises local flair and fireworks throughout, so let’s dig in to the action starting with the prelims.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 315 – Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

Bekzat Almakhan ($8,600) vs. Brad Katona ($7,600)

Fight Odds: -170 Almakhan vs. +132 Katona
Weight Class: 135lb. (Bantamweight)

Bekzat Almakhan (0-1 UFC) lost his UFC debut against Umar Nurmagomedov, but he made a solid account of himself on short notice, becoming the first and only man to ever knockdown Umar Nurmagomedov (6-1 UFC), a man who competed close in a UFC title fight earlier this year. Almakhan was largely dominated in the grappling, but the only fighters who have stood up to Nurmagomedov’s smothering control were Cory Sandhagen (11-4 UFC; still lost the contest) and Merab Dvalishvili (12-2 UFC; current 135 lb. Champion). Almakhan still has a lot to prove at this level, but he seems to have skills in all positions, a particularly dangerous striking attack (9-0 career to the KO), and more finishing upside than his opponent.

Brad Katona (4-4 UFC) is a very solid fighter who earned the respect of the viewing public with a blood-and-guts fight against talented prospect Jean Matsumoto (2-1 UFC) in his last fight. The problem for Katona as a fighter is that he is not particularly dangerous (just 4 stoppage wins in 18 professional fights; 0 at the UFC level). Almakhan is a more proven finisher, so Katona will need to swarm him with takedown attempts and try to leverage control time like Nurmagomedov was able to do. I think it is possible that Katona wrestles his way to a decision win in this fight, but I don’t trust him to do enough with his control time. Against Garrett Armfield (2-3 UFC), we saw Katona secure 4 takedowns and 4+ minutes of control time, but he still got outlanded by nearly double the amount of volume at distance.

Bekzat Almakhan is in a prove-it spot against Brad Katona this weekend, but I think he delivers.

Prediction: Bekzat Almakhan defeats Brad Katona via KO/SDEC

Jeong Yeong Lee ($7,900) vs. Daniel Santos ($8,300)