MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 316 - Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-06-07 00:08:00 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

After arguably the worst fight card in UFC history, we are treated to a UFC pay-per-view offering that features interesting debutants, two (arguably) compelling title fights, and a stacked lineup top to bottom. Many of the matchups feature lopsided odds, but not all of these fights are as cut and dry as the bookies would suggest. We will analyze all the action on the slate, beginning with a deep preliminary card that will showcase everything from action fighters to ranked heavyweights looking to stake their claim in the top 10.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS sites available today.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 316 – Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2

MarQuel Mederos ($8,900) vs. Mark Choinski ($7,300)

Fight Odds: -215 Mederos vs. +164 Choinski
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

MarQuel Mederos (2-0 UFC) has had a pretty fortunate run out in the UFC to end up with a 2-0 record. Mederos conceded nearly 12 minutes of control time to his opponents in his first 2 UFC bouts, he allowed 3 takedowns, and he was nearly submitted by Austin Hubbard (4-7 UFC). Despite going the full 15 minutes twice in the promotion, he has yet to eclipse 60 significant strikes. I am not sold on Mederos as a prospect because his striking is just okay, and his grappling is a flat out liability. A fighter with the same skills as Austin Hubbard but better focus and execution defeats Mederos at a high clip. Hubbard fumbled a very winnable fight with bad decisions and bad sequencing, and it was still a split decision.

Mark Choinski (UFC Debut) has a story of personal triumph for making it out of a life of poverty. He was a high school dropout and forced to go between homes, looking for any safe place to live as a child. His wrestling coaches helped him earn a Wisconsin State Wrestling Championship before sending him to a solid Division Three outfit where he earned All-American honors three times at University of Wisconsin Oshkosh. Choinski has been training full time at Roufusport since he stopped wrestling in college, and he has spent his regional career getting more comfortable striking with his opponents. The Brazilian jiu jitsu “blue belt” seems much more competent than his credentialing would have you believe.

I believe Mark Choinski is going to need takedowns to win this fight, but I expect that he will get them. Austin Hubbard has a paltry 31% takedown accuracy, and he was able not only to get Mederos down but keep him controlled for large swaths of time. Choinski is a more credentialed wrestler than Hubbard by a massive margin. Landon Quinones only secured a single takedown in 30 minutes of UFC fighting, and it was against Mederos. If Choinski doesn’t suffer from UFC jitters, he should have the skills to get Mederos down and keep him down or finish the fight.

Prediction: Mark Choinski defeats MarQuel Mederos via SUB/DEC

Quillan Salkilld ($9,400) vs. Yanal Ashmouz ($6,800)