MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 317 - Topuria vs. Oliveira

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-06-27 22:36:15 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC has a stacked 5-fight offering for the UFC 317 main card, but to get there, we must get through a mishmash of preliminary bouts, many of which were thrown together on short notice. The card looks as violent as I can remember for a UFC PPV in 2025, so let’s see if we can find the right winners and sound analysis along the way.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 317 – Topuria vs. Oliveira

Jhonata Diniz ($9,100) vs. Alvin Hines ($7,100)

Fight Odds: -325 Diniz vs. +250 Hines
Weight Class: 265lb. (Heavyweight)

Jhonata Diniz (2-1 UFC) was supposed to fight Justin Tafa on this card, but Tafa withdrew from the bout on short notice. Enter Alvin Hines (UFC Debut), a staple of the LFA heavyweight division who has won 5 fights with 4 finishes under the Legacy banner. Hines has won 10 fights in a row, pro and amateur, but he is taking a massive step up in competition. Hines is going from fighting regional-level heavyweights to a former Glory Kickboxer with 2 wins in the UFC.

Diniz lost his last fight, but he was taking on a proven top-15 fighter in Marcin Tybura (14-8 UFC) with a massive advantage on the ground. Diniz has poor grappling, but most heavyweights don’t have the wrestling or grappling pedigree to take advantage. Karl Williams (3-1 UFC) managed just 2 takedowns and ~2 minutes of control against Diniz, and I would take Karl Williams straight up against Alvin Hines without hesitation.

When two heavyweights swing leather, any man can fall, but Diniz is the much bigger man in terms of both height (6’4 vs. 6’2) and reach (79.5” vs. 74”), he is the more pedigreed fighter in the stand-up, and he has been tested against higher-level opponents. Unless Hines can get more takedowns than I am projecting, I think he is very likely to get sparked, and get sparked early.

Prediction: Jhonata Diniz defeats Alvin Hines via KO1/2

Jacobe Smith ($9,900) vs. Niko Price ($6,300)