MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 318 - Holloway vs. Poirier 3

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-07-18 23:05:48 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The octagon is headed to the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana, to send off an MMA legend with a B.M.F. title fight. Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier is lacing them up one more time in front of his home fans and looking to close out his career series against Max “Blessed” Holloway 3-0. The rest of the card is a bit middling in terms of star power and marquee matchups, but it will feature fan favorites, considerable depth, and a few prospects worth paying attention to.

Let’s begin with Louisiana’s own “Krispy” Carli Judice as she looks to build off an incredible head-kick KO in March.

Analysis for the remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 318 – Holloway vs. Poirier 3

Carli Judice ($9,100) vs. Nicolle Caliari ($7,100)

Fight Odds: -320 Judice vs. +245 Caliari
Weight Class: 125lb. (Women’s Flyweight)

Carli Judice (1-2 UFC) scored an impressive head-kick KO in her third UFC appearance, and she made a solid account of herself in two split-decision losses prior to that. Judice is still just 26, she is training with former champion Rose Namajunas, and she is a native of Louisiana. The former college softball player has obvious athleticism, her striking is superior to her opponent’s, and her striking volume is incredible. Judice is still young in her career, so she is much less experienced than Nicolle Caliari (0-1 UFC), who has been fighting professionally since 2015 (Judice didn’t have her first amateur fight until 2021).

Caliari and Judice both had the displeasure of losing split decisions against Ernesta Kareckaite (1-1 UFC). Both Caliari and Judice controlled Kareckaite for more than 3 minutes, but Judice landed 168 significant strikes, while Caliari landed just 67 significant strikes. Caliari can win this fight if she banks takedowns and top time or if she is able to secure a submission against a greener opponent.

This fight feels binary to me. Unless Caliari is able to dominate with the grappling and keep the fight in her preferred domain, she is likely to get overwhelmed with a huge volume of strikes. We don’t have many answers about Judice’s grappling, but I will trust the 26-year-old to be making the requisite improvements between fights to avoid disaster at home.

Prediction: Carli Judice defeats Nicolle Caliari via TKO2/3 (or Caliari via SUB)

Bruno Ferreira ($9,700) vs. Jackson McVey ($6,500)