MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 319 - Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-08-15 01:21:25 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC is headed to the United Center in Chicago with one of the most anticipated fight cards of the year. The combat sports leader is pitting the reigning, undisputed UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis (9-0 UFC) against the Chechen destroyer Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev (8-0 UFC). The card is stacked with meaningful fights from bottom to top, including the crowning of a new Ultimate Fighter winner at flyweight. Speaking of which, we will begin with the TUF Finale as we dive into the preliminary action.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of the remaining fights is coming soon!

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 319 – Du Plessis vs. Chimaev

Alibi Idris (Salary TBD) vs. Joseph Morales (Salary TBD)

Fight Odds: -355 Idris vs. +270 Morales
Weight Class: 125lb. (Flyweight)

Alibi Idris (UFC Debut) seems like a UFC-ready flyweight prospect. He knocked out DWCS alumni Roybert Echeverria (10-2 Pro) in the very first round to advance to the Ultimate Fighter Finale. In the quarterfinal round, he was able to outhustle Furkatbek Yokubov (14-4 Pro) and secure takedowns and dominant top positions. Idris seems to me like the better striker in this matchup by a small margin, but he also has better cardio, a better work rate, and I think he is more willing to push hard deep into the fight. He has also been booked in multiple 5-round fights and has gone the distance.

Joseph Morales (1-2 UFC) is making his return to the UFC after an unsuccessful stint back in 2017. The Team Alpha Male representative won his UFC debut via a first-round rear-naked choke against Roberto Sanchez (1-2 UFC) in August of 2017. In 2018, he was tapped by future champion Deiveson Figueiredo (13-5-1 UFC), and he lost a split decision against Eric Shelton (2-4 UFC), bringing his time with the promotion to an end, at least temporarily. He didn’t compete again professionally until 2021, and he has rattled off 3 straight wins since coming back to the Ultimate Fighter. Morales scored a solid first-round submission against the highly touted Brazilian prospect Eduardo Henrique (13-2 Pro) in the quarterfinals of the tournament, but I thought he deserved to lose the decision against Imanol Rodriguez in the semi-final. Morales started hot, but his plodding footwork, his lack of head movement, and his front-loaded aggression led to him getting outworked in round 2 and dominated thoroughly in round 3. The second round was close enough, but I thought Rodriguez did more damage and won about two-thirds of the round. The judges awarded Morales a contentious split decision.

The case for Morales winning this fight is that he has solid submissions and UFC experience. I think the case for Idris is stronger. Unless he gets UFC jitters in his debut, I think this kid is the premier talent of this season of The Ultimate Fighter, and I think he has the tools to win.

Prediction: Alibi Idris defeats Joseph Morales via KO2/3

Karine Silva ($8,800) vs. Dione Barbosa ($7,400)