MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 321 - Aspinall vs. Gane

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-10-25 01:07:37 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The combat sports leader has two title fights on tap, and they are bringing them to the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The UFC Undisputed Heavyweight Championship will be awarded to either Tom Aspinall, the defending champion, or Ciryl Gane, the third-time title challenger. We will also see either MacKenzie Dern or Virna Jandiroba secure first-time championship status as the vacant strawweight title looms large. Top to bottom, the card is stacked with talented prospects, interesting matchups, and quality contenders. Let’s begin by discussing the women’s strawweight bout, which will set the tone for our proceedings.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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UFC 321 – Aspinall vs. Gane

Jaqueline Amorim ($9,500) vs. Mizuki Inoue ($6,700)

Fight Odds: -420 Amorim vs. +310 Inoue
Weight Class: 115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Jaqueline Amorim (4-1 UFC) dropped her UFC debut against “Sampage” Sam Hughes (6-5 UFC), but she hasn’t looked back since. Since then, the Brazilian strawweight prospect has spun off 4 consecutive stoppages, 3 submissions, and 1 TKO via ground and pound. Amorim has a nice blast double leg, particularly when she is fresh. She is capable of hitting sweeps and submissions from the full guard, she is effective as a top player (passes, GNP, SUB attempts), and she is defensively responsible (64% striking defense; 1.4 strikes absorbed per minute). Amorim trains with the world-class American Top Team, and she just turned 30 in June. She is in her athletic prime, and a win in this matchup would warrant a step up in competition.

Mizuki Inoue (2-1 UFC) is a very talented and accomplished WMMA fighter, but you have to ask some serious, difficult questions about her commitment to the sport at this stage. Inoue has competed just 3 times since signing with the UFC in 2019. She won a split decision over Wu Yanan (1-5 UFC) in her promotional debut in 2019, then lost a unanimous decision against Amanda Lemos (9-5 UFC) in 2020. Most recently, Inoue notched a lackluster return victory over Hannah Goldy (1-4 UFC) in which she conceded a takedown and nearly 3 minutes of control.

Inoue has an impressive 9-0 career record to the submission prop, which is made more impressive by the fact that she fought (albeit a losing effort) 5 full rounds against the highly credentialed black belt Virna Jandiroba (14-0 to the SUB; 8-3 UFC; fighting for the belt on this card). My problem with picking her to win this fight is that she seems to blow over with a strong gust of wind. Amorim strikes me as the more impressive athlete, the more assertive wrestler, the more dangerous submission threat, and the more powerful striker. Unless Inoue is able to pace Amorim or achieve extended periods of top control, I expect her to lose this fight. I expect Amorim has all of the finishing upside here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see her notch her first career win via decision, as Inoue has never been finished (6 of 6 losses via DQ or DEC).

Prediction: Jaqueline Amorim defeats Mizuki Inoue via TKO or DEC

Azat Maksum ($9,200) vs. Mitch Raposo ($7,000) –

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