MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 324 - Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship is BACK in our lives after a 6-week hiatus. Paramount+ will be the new home of the combat sports leader, and they offer back-to-back numbered events to kick off their new partnership. UFC 324 was meant to be headlined by a pair of title fights, but a recent neck injury sidelined Kayla Harrison, leaving the Interim Lightweight Championship fight between Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje alone at the top of the bill. Luckily for us fight fans, the card is deep with talent, featuring a number of former champions and top contenders vying for major opportunities later in the year. The year begins with a welterweight scrap that oddsmakers are expecting to end inside the distance.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 324 – Gaethje vs. Pimblett
Ty Miller ($9,300) vs. Adam Fugitt ($6,900)
Fight Odds: -440 Miller vs. +310 Fugitt
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)
Ty Miller (UFC Debut) is an archetypal Fit NHB long man striker. He is most comfortable at boxing range, throwing snappy punches on the lead or as counter strikes. Miller does some kicking off his lead leg, and he is opportunistic with all of his limbs in the clinch, but he would be well served to continue building more variety into his offensive approach. What stands out about Miller on the tape is his ability to return to his feet and stay safe when taken down. His second professional fight was against Eric Nolan, a recent UFC signee who impressed against Baisangur Susurkaev despite losing the fight up a weight class on short notice. Miller was able to touch Nolan all night, stay safe in grappling exchanges, and he competed hard for the full 15 minutes.
Adam Fugitt (2-3 UFC) has had a tough run in the UFC. His 3 losses in the promotion came against quality opponents in Michael Morales (7-0 UFC), Mike Malott (6-1 UFC), and Islam Dulatov (1-0 UFC). The problem is that neither of his UFC wins jumps off the page as impressive. He won a lackluster split decision against Josh Quinlan (1-3 UFC), and he destroyed overrated prospect Yusaku Kinoshita (0-2 UFC) in the very first round. Fugitt recently turned 37, he has cycled through a number of different training camps, and he has been finished in 4 of his 5 professional losses. Unless he is able to secure takedowns and top control (which I do not expect), I think his upside in this fight is trying to make it a close, competitive decision.
As I see it, this is Ty Miller’s fight to lose. If he stays composed, fights behind his jab, leverages his speed advantage, and avoids extended grappling exchanges, he should connect with Fugitt until he finds the off switch or time runs out.
Prediction: Ty Miller defeats Adam Fugitt via TKO2/3
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Favorite DFS Targets on DraftKings
Nikita Krylov ($7,800)
Krylov got starched in the first round in both of his most recent fights, but when you zoom out, his DFS results have been impressive in the UFC. Krylov has scored 100+ fantasy points in 10 of 11 UFC victories and has scored 120+ fantasy points in 5 of those wins (including in each of his last 3). Krylov has proven he can score well in a finish win or a 3-round decision. He is a boom-or-bust commodity, but I think he is a strong candidate to make the optimal lineup.
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights