MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 328 - Chimaev vs. Strickland
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC 328 – Chimaev vs. Strickland.
The combat sports leader is bringing one of their strongest offerings of the year (arguably stronger than the UFC Freedom 250 show) to the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. At the top of the billing are two undisputed UFC title fights. Middleweight Champion Khamzat “Borz” Chimaev will defend his crown against the former champion and always loquacious Sean “Tarzan” Strickland. Flyweights take second billing, as young upstart champion Joshua Van looks to cement himself as champion against the Japanese Supernova, Tatsuro Taira. The challenger is looking to secure Japan’s first major world championship in mixed martial arts. Top to bottom, the card is stacked with meaningful fights, quality talents, and intriguing matchups. Let us begin with a fight that is very interesting but sure to fly under the radar this weekend between flyweights Jose “Kalzifer” Ochoa and Clayton Carpenter.
Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon!
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC 328 – Chimaev vs. Strickland – MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Jose Ochoa ($8,800) vs. Clayton Carpenter ($7,400)
Fight Odds: -188 Ochoa vs. +152 Carpenter
Weight Class: 125lb. (Flyweight)
Jose Ochoa (1-2 UFC) has not been offered a single easy fight in the UFC, so you have to forgive his 1-2 record with the promotion. Both of his losses are against opponents ranked in the top 10 of the flyweight division. The 25-year-old Peruvian lost his UFC debut via a competitive unanimous decision against Lone’er Kavanagh (3-1 UFC), and he lost his most recent fight getting outwrestled by “Zulfikar” Asu Almabayev (6-1 UFC). The Chute Boxe Diego Lima representative was able to notch an impressive victory over divisional stalwart Cody “Custom Made” Durden (7-8-1 UFC) via 2nd-round knockout. What was more impressive was that he was able to unanimously win the 1st round against Durden despite conceding 2 takedowns and nearly 2 minutes of control time. Ochoa has a 100% finish rate through 8 professional victories, and he has never been stopped in a fight. Both of Ochoa’s losses were via UDEC.
Clayton Carpenter (2-2 UFC) started his UFC career with a lot of momentum, defeating Edgar Chairez (3-2 UFC; 1NC) via UDEC on DWCS before submitting Juancamilo Ronderos (0-2 UFC) and the talented but undersized Lucas Rocha (1-1 UFC). Unfortunately, the 29-year-old MMA Lab representative has fallen on hard times lately, losing back-to-back fights against Tagir Ulanbekov (6-2 UFC) and Jafel Filho (3-3 UFC). In other words, when Carpenter had a dominant wrestling and grappling advantage, he was able to defeat his opponents. When he didn’t have wrestling and grappling superiority, he was soundly defeated, including a loss via SUB1 (kimura).
Carpenter has been losing to fighters who wanted to wrestle him, but now he gets an opportunity to fight an opponent who prefers to wrestle and grapple as a reactive strategy rather than as a proactive strategy. The issue I see for Carpenter is that Ochoa is difficult to control, and it normally requires multiple chain wrestling attacks to get him down. Carpenter is a decent boxer with the ability to kick all targets of the body, but he is not as creative or lethal as a striker as Ochoa is. If Carpenter wins, his style is likely to pay off his salary, as he likely needs multiple TDs or a submission to get his hand raised. The fight may be closer than the odds suggest, but I believe the staying power, the ability to create damage, and the finishing instincts of Ochoa will be the deciding factor.
Prediction: Jose Ochoa defeats Clayton Carpenter via Stoppage round 2/3
Baisangur Susurkaev ($9,600) vs. Djorden Santos ($6,600)
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights