MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 329 - McGregor vs. Holloway 2

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2026-07-10 00:55:50 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC 329 – McGregor vs. Holloway 2.

Conor McGregor has lived up to his “Notorious” billing inside and outside the octagon. The Irishman has become a much more divisive figure in his absence from competition, but his return after a 5-year layoff will be a must-see spectacle for many nostalgic combat sports fans. As pay-per-view has gone by the wayside, the UFC has built this card into a more stacked, interesting event to capitalize on the eyeballs and attention McGregor is sure to bring. We begin the preliminary action with a quality flyweight tilt featuring athletes who never hesitate to step up on short notice.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC 329 – McGregor vs. Holloway 2: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Alessandro Costa ($9,100) vs. Cody Durden ($7,100)

Fight Odds: -265 Costa vs. +200 Durden
Weight Class: 125lb. (Flyweight)

Alessandro Costa (4-3 UFC) and Cody Durden (7-8-1 UFC) are two of the best unranked flyweights on the roster, and both men are looking to earn a step up in competition with a win in this matchup. “Nono” Costa and “Custom Made” Cody Durden have both been willing to step up on short notice and deliver for the organization with or without the benefit of a full training camp. As far as the measurables go, Costa will be 3” shorter than Durden, but they share a 67” reach. When you’re a wrestler like Cody Durden, being the taller man is not necessarily an advantage, as he has to drop further to access Costa’s hips (a low center of gravity). Despite posting a 1-4 record in his last 5 UFC fights, Durden was able to secure 13 takedowns and ~15 minutes of control time. Durden has a high work rate, averaging nearly 4 takedowns per 15 minutes over the course of a 16-fight UFC sample. His biggest problem is that he has only converted 2 finishes at the UFC level, and both were against fighters with suspect durability in Matt Schnell (7-9 UFC; 9 of 9 losses ITD) and JP Buys (0-4 UFC; 3 of 4 losses ITD). Durden’s gas tank is not always reliable, his durability is suspect (6 of 8 UFC losses ITD), and he can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in the blink of an eye.

Alessandro Costa has had a career in the UFC of beating the guys you expect him to beat and making it look easy. His most recent performances are great examples, as he folded Stewart Nicoll (0-3 UFC) and Matt Schnell with strikes in the first couple of frames. I said in this article Alden Coria (2-0 UFC) was live to KO Costa, but I had no idea it would be such a one-sided affair. Costa’s best win in the promotion was a leg kick demolition of 10th-ranked UFC flyweight Kevin Borjas (2-4 UFC). I can forgive Costa losing to Amir Albazi (5-2 UFC) in his short-notice debut via TKO3, and I can forgive him losing to Steve Erceg (5-3 UFC), who nearly defeated Pantoja for the belt 6 months later. Costa accepted this fight on short notice, but he has been installed as a big favorite because this should be a favorable matchup for him on paper. He should be able to sprawl on Durden’s attempts (86% TD defense rate), land the more powerful strikes (5:2 KD ratio vs. 1:4 KD ratio for Durden), and he is more likely to finish the fight.

The best path for Cody Durden in this fight is to limit exchanges, stick and move with his jab and low kicks (how Coria disabled Costa), and look for opportunities to take Costa down or crowd him against the fence to burn clock. Durden has a 5-2 record in UFC decisions, while Costa is 0-1 in UFC decisions and just 3-2 in professional decisions. The most likely outcome is Costa eventually lands a strike of consequence or catches Durden’s neck out of position. That being said, Costa either finds the finish or risks getting outworked over the course of 15 minutes. I favor Costa, but I don’t like his pockets of inactivity in a “goes to decision” scenario.

Prediction: Alessandro Costa via Stoppage or Cody Durden via SDEC

Ryan Gandra ($8,600) vs. Zachary Reese ($7,600)

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