MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 331 - Van vs. Pantoja 2

Gandra of the UFC

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC 331 – Van vs. Pantoja 2.

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Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon!

UFC 331 – Van vs. Pantoja 2: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Joanderson Brito ($9,200) vs. Giga Chikadze ($7,000)

Fight Odds: -430 Brito vs. +300 Chikadze
Weight Class: 145lb. (Featherweight)

Chikadze of the UFC

Joanderson Brito (7-3 UFC) dropped his UFC debut against Bill Algeo (5-5 UFC), but he returned with a vengeance and rattled off 5 consecutive victories, all via stoppage. “Tubarao” had his momentum halted by a nip-tuck split decision against the Frenchman William Gomis (5-2 UFC) in hostile territory. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, his next fight against American grappling stand out Pat Sabatini was a “big bank take little bank” situation on the mat with Brito’s physical grappling style failing to contend with the exquisite technique of his opponent. Brito was set to dance with favorable stylistic matchup Melsik Baghdasaryan last December, but he accepted a short-notice replacement with the talented newcomer Isaac Thomson, a kickboxer with skills in all positions. Brito was able to hustle his way to a victory in a scramble-fest, showing better cardio than he has in some of his past fights and securing a career-high 8 takedowns in the process. Brito can swing with big power on the feet, but he is most effective when he is able to impose his physicality on his opponents. He attempts more than a takedown per minute spent at distance over a big sample size, he summarily out-grappled primary grappler Jordan Leavitt (6-4 UFC) in his last fight, and he represents the most aggressive wrestler and grappler that his opponent will have faced inside the octagon.

Giga Chikadze (8-4 UFC) is a Georgian Glory kickboxer who spent some time in the UFC featherweight rankings. He is no longer in the prime of his career at 38, but he has demonstrated dangerous striking skills in each of his last 2 fights, unanimously taking the 1st round off primary strikers David Onama (6-3 UFC) and Kevin Vallejos (4-0 UFC) while landing his patented body kicks and showing decent speed. Against Onama, his undoing was poor takedown defense. Chikadze allowed 3 takedowns on as many attempts and conceded 6+ minutes of control time as well as several negative positions. Vallejos beat Chikadze at his own game in the 2nd round, tagging him with a pair of right hands before vaporizing him with a spinning elbow and a hellacious round of unrestricted followups to a defenseless fighter on the mat. Now Chikadze is tasked with returning from 9 months of inactivity to a difficult style matchup against a physical wrestler and grappler who hits very hard and who has never been knocked down or stopped with strikes inside the octagon. The path I see for Chikadze is a body shot KO (Brito has a solid chin) or a close decision based on damage in the early rounds.

Ultimately, the takedown defense I saw from Chikadze against Onama was unacceptable Historically, Giga has just a 65% takedown defense rate, he hasn’t secured an offensive takedown in the last 6 years (never against a fighter with a winning UFC record), and he has only attempted 2 submissions against a rocked Edson Barboza (both attempts failed). Chikadze is a declining fighter with limited cardio, his kick-heavy style could facilitate easier takedowns or caught kicks for his opponent, and he has largely avoided this kind of stylistic matchup. Brito is the younger fighter by 7 years, he has a commensurate amount of octagon experience (albeit at a slightly lower level), and I think he is more likely to be competitive with Chikadze on the feet than Chikadze is to be competitive with Brito on the mat. Give me Brito to secure takedowns until he is able to find the finish on the mat.

Prediction: Joanderson Brito defeats Giga Chikadze via Stoppage on the Mat (SUB/GNP)

Casey O’Neill ($8,500) vs. Eduarda Moura ($7,700)

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About the Author

LiamPicksFights
Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights)

Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights