MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC 334 - Gane vs. Hokit

Alatengheili of the UFC

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC 334 – Gane vs. Hokit.

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The octagon is headed back to the world’s most famous arena with a pair of title fights at the top of the marquee. In the main event, American challenger Josh Hokit looks to complete his rapid rise to championship glory while his French counterpart Ciryl Gane looks to reassert himself as the undisputed king of the heavyweights after winning the interim championship against Alex Pereira in June. In the co-main event, two of the greatest women’s mixed martial artists of all time will square off with the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship on the line, as Kayla Harrison defends her belt against “The Lioness” Amanda Nunes. From top to bottom, this event should be full of exciting matchups, interesting prospects, and veterans worth celebrating. The night begins with the return of Evan Elder after an 18-month hiatus against a promising Brazilian knockout artist who earned his contract on DWCS.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC 334 – Gane vs. Hokit: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Samuel Sanches ($8,200) vs. Evan Elder ($8,000)

Fight Odds: -130 Sanches vs. +102 Elder
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

Elder of the UFC

Samuel Sanches (UFC Debut) earned his UFC contract on DWCS with a shutout victory against Chasen Blair (0-2 DWCS). “The Prodigy” outlanded his opponent 12 to 0 on significant strikes and finished the fight via knockout in the opening round. The Brazilian is a knockout artist with 6 first-round KOs and 8 of his 11 professional wins (72.7%) via KO/TKO. The last time Sanches tasted defeat, he was a 19-year-old upstart who got caught in an ugly rolling kneebar exchange. He showed more composure and defensive responsibility in the grappling phase as a 22-year-old fighter on DWCS in the biggest fight of his life as Blair desperately tried to secure a standing back take. While Sanches could underperform due to debut jitters or a lack of UFC experience, he seems to have solid killer instinct, nasty boxing combinations, and a game that shows consistent improvements over time. At 23, the sky is the limit for Sanches’ potential.

Evan Elder (3-2 UFC) began his UFC career behind the 8-ball with a short-notice loss in the welterweight division against Preston Parsons (2-4 UFC) via unanimous decision and a TKO3 loss against Nazim Sadykhov (4-2-1 UFC) via doctor’s stoppage. He has bounced back with 3 consecutive wins in the lightweight division, but all of his wins are a bit less impressive in context. Elder began his win streak in 2023 by defeating Genaro Valdez (0-3 UFC) who has not competed in MMA since (Valdez recorded a KD against Elder; 1:1 ratio). He followed that up by submitting a completely death-gassed Darrius Flowers (1-4 UFC) after an ugly back-and-forth fight. Elder’s most recent win was 18 months ago against Gauge Young (2-2 UFC) in the latter’s short-notice UFC debut. Now he is looking to return to form after being sidelined with injuries.

When I analyze this matchup, I see Sanches as the nastier boxer of the pair with more power in his hands and superior finishing instincts. Sanches is also the longer fighter who is more willing to throw extended punching combinations. If I expected Elder to get consistent takedowns, I would give him a better chance to win, but the film I watched showed Elder to be a mediocre wrestler, and the stats supported that observation (average of 0.5 TDs per 15 mins at a 15% accuracy). Elder typically relies on a kick-heavy approach, and I expect him to default to that in this matchup, as it is his best path to victory. In order for Elder to win, he will need to remain mobile, avoid extended exchanges, and chip away with kicks, body work, and volume. Sanches is taking a step up in competition here, but I expect he will bloody up Elder’s face (positive visual in the eyes of the judges) and eventually connect with a fight-altering punch.

Prediction: Samuel Sanches defeats Evan Elder via KO/DEC

Juan Diaz ($9,200) vs. Alatengheili ($7,000)

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About the Author

LiamPicksFights
Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights)

Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights