MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Albazi vs. Taira

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-08-02 00:24:06 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC may not be shining bright with stars this Saturday, but they will be deep with international talent. We have everything from potential loser-leaves-town fights before DWCS gets under way to a quality main event featuring two of Asia’s best flyweight prospects. The main card is stacked with action fights, while the prelims have several binary grappler vs. striker archetypes that should make for compelling entertainment. Let’s begin with two women looking to stake their claim as strawweights who deserve to step up in competition.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Albazi vs. Taira

Piera Rodriguez ($8,700) vs. Ketlen Souza ($7,500)

Fight Odds: -230 Rodriguez vs. +176 Souza
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Piera Rodriguez (3-2 UFC) could easily be 4-1 in the UFC if she hadn’t given away a free win against Ariane Carnelossi (3-2 UFC) in a bout of low fight IQ. Rodriguez was hurting Carnelossi, winning wrestling exchanges, and well on her way to securing a TKO victory on the mat when she repeatedly landed head butts that got her disqualified from the contest. She bounced back by defeating Josefine Knutsson (2-1 UFC) who was unceremoniously dropped from the promotion after her first defeat. Rodriguez hasn’t shown herself to be much of a finishing threat at the UFC level, but she is 3-0 in fights that go the distance (5-0 career), she is averaging more than 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 51% accuracy, and she has outlanded all but one UFC/DWCS opponent on significant strikes. Rodriguez only lost to Gillian Robertson (13-6 UFC), the woman tied with Amanda Nunes for the most finishes in women’s UFC history.

Ketlen Souza (2-2 UFC) is a fighter you can see making improvements fight over fight, but she also has a salty record pre-UFC, and she has an alarming 4 losses inside the distance, which is quite rare for a WMMA fighter. Souza has been stopped with strikes twice, including once against common opponent Ariane Carnelossi. Souza has been stopped with leg kicks, she was tapped with a vicious leg lock in the UFC, and she was armbarred by a fighter with a losing professional record back in 2018. Souza’s most recent loss was a split decision in the UFC against talented journeywoman Angela Hill (13-14 UFC), when she conceded 2 takedowns and nearly a full round of control time (4 minutes and 30 seconds).

Souza fits some of my criteria for an underdog play as the younger fighter with more professional experience, but she doesn’t have a win over a fighter of Rodriguez’s quality, she has been taken down 5 times in 4 UFC appearances, and she only stuffs takedowns at a 64% rate. Rodriguez should be able to consolidate takedowns and top control in this matchup. If she is able to advance position and land solid ground and pound, she could work her way to a finish.

Prediction: Piera Rodriguez defeats Ketlen Souza via Rd. 2/3/DEC

Rafael Estevam ($9,500) vs. Felipe Bunes ($6,700)