MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Allen vs. Costa

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2026-05-15 01:41:43 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Allen vs. Costa.

It is not uncommon for a stacked numbered event like UFC 328 to leave the next card barren. This UFC event has some well-matched fights and a lot of high stakes with people competing for their future employment, but it does not have a ton of consistent winners who have proven themselves elite at the UFC level. The main event is the show stealer, with streaking Melquizael Costa looking to continue his rise at the expense of Arnold Allen, a stalwart of the featherweight division. After Arnold’s double-digit win streak expired at the hands of Max Holloway, he is just 1-3 in his last 4. We should get a sensational main event and answers about who is the real contender.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

UFC Fight Night – Allen vs. Costa: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Nicolle Caliari ($9,000) vs. Shauna Bannon ($7,200)

Fight Odds: -265 Caliari vs. +210 Bannon
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Nicolle Caliari (0-2 UFC) has decided to drop down to the strawweight division for the first time since 2021, and I think that is a fantastic decision for her career. After submitting BJJ black belt Corinne Laframboise on the Contender Series, Caliari suffered two straight defeats at the hands of emerging prospect Carli Judice (3-1 UFC) and perennial tough out Ernesta Kareckaite (1-2 UFC; ironically beat Judice on DWCS). Both of those matchups highlighted the lack of height and reach that would hold back Caliari in the women’s flyweight (125lb.) division. Now her frame is much more reasonably matched with her opponents, and her physicality should translate much better. Caliari attempted 14 takedowns against Kareckaite (achieving 3) and attempted 8 against Judice (achieving 1). I expect her to shoot takedowns and get them against her opponents’ upright style and lackluster takedown defense.

Shauna Bannon (2-2 UFC) has a solid decision win over Alice Ardelean (2-2 UFC) in the latter’s UFC debut and a Hail Mary submission from guard after getting floored (and arguably KO’d) by Puja Tomar (1-1 UFC). Bannon’s losses came via unanimous decision in her UFC debut against Bruna Brasil (3-5 UFC) and via SUB2 against Sam Hughes (6-6 UFC) in her most recent outing. Bannon is a very poor defensive wrestler because she is often on one foot, she blitzes in wildly when she tries to box, and she tries to pull armbars from guard. Bannon is aggressive off her back, but against quality opponents, that leads to guard passes and negative positions. Bannon has a chance to eke out a close decision if she can keep the fight upright, but she doesn’t have proven power, she is very likely to get taken down, and chin is more suspect to me than Caliari.

Caliari has shown more tenacity to achieve top position, she has shown more fundamental grappling skills beyond the armbar attempts against bottom-of-the-barrel grapplers, and she swings with more violent intentions. It is rare to see a woman with a 100% finish rate in her wins including 5 wins via KO. I think Caliari can dominate Bannon physically and finish on the mat.

Prediction: Nicole Caliari defeats Shauna Bannon via Stoppage

Daniel Barez ($8,200) vs. Luis Gurule ($8,000)

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