MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Allen vs. Duncan

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights)

Created Oct 9, 2026

Last Updated 2026-10-09 02:10:37 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Allen vs. Duncan.

The combat sports leader is not bringing their best to the UFC Apex this weekend, but they are likely using this event to trim some fat from the roster and exhaust some contractual obligations before the year is out. I have no qualms with the main event as Brendan “All In” Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan (a.k.a. CLD). They are ranked contenders in the middleweight division who deserve a showcase opportunity. While the supporting cast on this card is lacking star power and stakes, the matchups are largely competitive on paper with paths to victory on both sides. This should make for as compelling a DFS slate as we can expect with 12 fights on the bill. Let’s begin with the first of three women’s bouts on the card as Melissa Gatto and Ernesta Kareckaite look to get back on the winning track.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night – Allen vs. Duncan: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Melissa Gatto ($8,300) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite ($7,900)

Fight Odds: -120 Gatto vs. -106 Kareckaite
Weight Class: W125lb. (Women’s Flyweight)

Melissa Gatto (3-3 UFC) suffered a defeat against common opponent Dione Barbosa (4-2 UFC) in her last fight, but I felt she was hard done by the officials and the athletic commission. Her opponent struck her while she was clearly a grounded opponent with a kick to the head/neck that sounded very impactful. After Gatto took several minutes to recover under the supervision of doctors, she was somehow allowed to continue fighting with her opponent receiving a point deduction. The fight should have never continued because Gatto was hit by a seemingly concussive illegal strike. When action resumed, Gatto managed to secure multiple takedowns across rounds 2 and 3, she defended submissions technically, and she earned the 3rd round on one judges’ card. Gatto has shown more finishing upside than her opponent both in the UFC (3 of 3 wins via KO/TKO) and as a professional (7 of 9 pro wins via stoppage). She has also demonstrated more wrestling (9 TDs vs. 3 TDs) and grappling upside (2 credited SUB attempts vs. 0). The danger for Gatto in this matchup is the scorecards, as she is underwater to the decision prop as a professional (2-3 in DECs) with an 0-3 record on the cards in the UFC.

Ernesta Kareckaite (1-2 UFC) has never stopped a quality opponent in martial arts, but she has produced a competitive record because she is well conditioned, she has a large frame, and she pumps out a ton of volume on the feet. If Kareckaite had more natural power and physicality, she would be a much more dangerous fighter. Unfortunately, she has yet to record a knockdown in the UFC, her finishing instincts looked incredibly poor against a gassed Dione Barbosa in a fight she was down 2-0 on all three judges’ scorecards, and her grappling and wrestling have looked suspect. Kareckaite was taken down by every UFC opponent except Carli Judice, she has given up 6 takedowns across her last 3 fights, and she was nearly submitted against Dione Barbosa in the initial round. Kareckaite is capable of pumping out tons of arm punches, but she crowds her work, negates her size, and absorbs a ton of strikes in return (6.5 significant strikes per minute at a 49% DEF rate).

Most of the community is picking Kareckaite in this fight because the Barbosa fight was a tough look for Gatto, and Kareckaite has proven volume upside in a fight that is heavily favored to go the distance. My gut tells me that Gatto is the harder hitter, the more likely finisher, and the fighter with more paths to victory. Gatto has taken down more proven wrestlers than Kareckaite (such as Barbosa and Cortez), she is the only fighter of the pair to produce a knockdown, and I trust her to have the vast majority of the grappling upside in this matchup from top or bottom position.

Prediction: Melissa Gatto via Stoppage or Either Woman via SDEC

Alice Pereira ($8,400) vs. Darya Zheleznyakova ($7,800)

Want to read more? Sign up for MMA Premium!

-

-

-