MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Bonfim vs. Brown

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-11-08 01:03:17 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

Despite the MMA world being rocked by a betting scandal at the last UFC event, the show must go on, and the industry leader will be live from the scene of the crime, the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. This week, the less-than-blockbuster headliner is a welterweight clash pitting the promising Brazilian upstart Gabriel Bonfim against the savvy UFC veteran, “Rude Boi” Randy Brown. The card is still being shaped in real time, as evidenced by the fact Jackson McVey has been linked with no fewer than 3 different opponents since Monday of fight week. Let’s begin with his current booking against Zach Reese, whose addition to the card was recent enough (at the time of writing) that he has not yet been assigned a salary.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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UFC Fight Night – Bonfim vs. Brown

Zach Reese ($9,100) vs. Jackson McVey ($7,900)

Fight Odds: -300 Reese vs. +235 McVey
Weight Class: 185lb. (Middleweight)

Zach Reese (3-2 UFC) stepped up on short notice to take on Jackson McVey (0-1 UFC) after the latter had two other opponents (Robert Valentin and Donte Johnson) pulled from the bout during fight week. Reese fought to a no contest with Sedriques Dumas in September before a low blow brought the fight to an abrupt halt. Reese has been a boom-or-bust fighter in the UFC, losing twice via brutal first-round knockout and winning three times in one-sided fashion.

Jackson McVey has yet to prove he is UFC level. I predicted in this article that McVey would get subbed against Bruno Ferreira (5-2 UFC) via bellydown armbar, and that is exactly what happened. McVey has a wild style, he brings all-out aggression, and he is a first-round finisher. His kill-or-be-killed nature is evident in his 100% professional finish rate, and it extends to his amateur days where all but 1 of his 7 amateur fights ended inside the distance. Both of McVey’s losses (pro and amateur) were via submission, but he is very aggressive with his own submissions.

In a combined 30 fights professional and amateur, these fighters have only seen the scorecards 4 times (3 for Reese, 1 for McVey as an amateur). Reese is a more refined, experienced, and technically sound fighter, and he has a more proven process over the course of 15 minutes. The upside for McVey is that he has heavy strikes and is very aggressive in the grappling while fresh. We have seen Reese concede 43% of the takedown attempts that he has faced, so he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against a fighter like McVey. The reason I can’t confidently back Reese is that he was a better fighter than Cody Brundage and still found a way to lose.

Prediction: Zach Reese defeats Jackson McVey via Stoppage (Either Stoppage in Rd. 1/2)

Daniel Marcos ($8,500) vs. Miles Johns ($7,700) –

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