MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Burns vs. Morales

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-05-16 23:48:44 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC returns to the Apex Center with a somewhat tepid offering headlined by a very interesting welterweight title eliminator. Gilbert Burns (15-8 UFC) was up 2 rounds on some judges’ scorecards before the brand new welterweight champion Jack Della Madallena put him to sleep with a knee and a barrage of elbows. Now Burns is back in a main event spotlight looking to defend his ranking against the surging and undefeated Michael Morales (5-0 UFC), who steps into his first UFC main event opposite the #8 ranked welterweight in the world.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Burns vs. Morales

Tecia Pennington ($9,300) vs. Luana Pinheiro ($6,900)

Fight Odds: -385 Pennington vs. +290 Pinheiro
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Tecia Pennington (10-7 UFC) is clearly the more skilled fighter coming into this matchup, and that is reflected by the betting line, with Pennington installed as a substantial favorite. The thing that would make me nervous about backing Pennington in a matchup like this is Luana Pinheiro (3-3 UFC) could test her 63% takedown defense rate. She has 5 more finish wins than Pennington (despite having 6 fewer fights as a professional), and she has more knockdowns in a 7-fight sample (DWCS/UFC) than Pennington has in a 17-fight sample.

This matchup feels binary to me. If Pinheiro is unable to hurt Pennington with her strikes or take her to the ground, she is going to get outworked and outhustled by a savvier fighter over the course of 15 minutes. I give Pinheiro the bulk of the finishing upside because she is more dangerous, but I wouldn’t count out Pinheiro’s ability to finish herself. She was lucky to get a DQ win against Randa Markos, she became the first woman to ever get submitted by Angela Hill in a 27-fight UFC career (1-2 to the SUB in UFC), and she was brutally knocked out by Amanda Ribas in Ribas’ only UFC win via KO/TKO.

This fight has the potential to be more violent than oddsmakers are giving it credit for, but the right woman is favored at the end of the day. Pinheiro is potentially a more explosive athlete, and she will be the bigger, younger woman in this matchup, but Pennington will never quit on herself, and Pinheiro has shown that she will.

Prediction: Tecia Pennington defeats Luana Pinheiro via Rd.2/3/DEC

Hyun Sung Park ($8,500) vs. Carlos Hernandez ($7,700)