MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Dern vs. Ribas 2

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-01-11 16:41:27 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

There are no seasons in mixed martial arts, but the holiday doldrums have given way to the first fight card of 2025 — UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2. Is it the best card you could imagine? No. Will this card feed the starving appetite of fight fans? Absolutely. The main event is a compelling rematch between strawweight grappling aces. Throughout the card, we will have opportunities to learn more about the newest crop of Contender Series fighters, including the likes of Austin Bashi, Jacobe Smith, and Nicolle Caliari.

With 14 fights on the bill, there is no time to delay. Let’s get into the breakdown.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Dern vs. Ribas 2

Uros Medic ($8,700) vs. Punahele Soriano ($7,500)

Fight Odds: -220 Medic vs. +176 Soriano
Weight Class: 170lb. (Light Heavyweight)

Punahele Soriano put up an astounding 170 fantasy points in his welterweight debut, but he has a tougher ask to keep the ball rolling this time out. Soriano is just 4-4 in the UFC, but he began his run as a drastically undersized middleweight and ran into several big body kickers who could read his punches, defend his takedowns, and punish him with kicks from outside Soriano’s range. At welterweight, Soriano’s wrestling translates much better, and his physicality does as well.

Uros Medic is a former lightweight turned welterweight with excellent power on the feet and a willingness to take damage in order to get the win (see Matthew Semelsberger fight). The problem for Medic is he is a negative wrestler and grappler. Myktybek Orolbai is a special fighter, but I knew he could step up against Medic on short notice and audit him on the mat despite being a natural 155lb. Medic also got owned on the mat by Jalin Turner at 155lb., suffering submission losses on both occasions. Soriano is far from a grappling ace, but he was a D-III Wrestling standout at prestigious Wartburg College at 197lb. He is the much stronger man physically, and he should be able to lord takedowns over Medic and use his ground-and-pound volume to soften him up.

Soriano’s cardio is still a bit of a question mark, but it looked serviceable in his welterweight debut, and at ‘dog odds, I feel he could do the same thing to Medic here. Miguel Baeza may have been post prime, but he was a BJJ black belt fighting for his career. Medic is a work in progress on the mat at best, and I don’t think he can scramble with Soriano.

Prediction: Punahele Soriano defeats Uros Medic via SUB/UDEC

Austin Bashi ($8,900) vs. Christian Rodriguez ($7,300)

Fight Odds: -265 Bashi vs. +210 Rodriguez
Weight Class: 145lb. (Featherweight)