MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Emmett vs. Murphy

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-04-04 00:30:10 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC is back in Las Vegas for a featherweight title eliminator meant to whet the appetite before a new UFC Featherweight Champion is crowned next week at UFC 314. In the meantime, we have plenty of great action fights, wily veterans, and debuting prospects that should make for an interesting night of fights.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Underdog Fantasy promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS sites available today.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Emmett vs. Murphy

Loma Lookboonmee ($9,500) vs. Istela Nunes ($6,700)

Fight Odds: -800 Lookboonmee vs. +480 Nunes
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Loma Lookboonmee (6-2 UFC) opened as a -400 favorite in this matchup and she has been steamed all the way to a -800 (88.9% implied win probability) price tag. Lookboonmee enters this bout on the strength of a 3-fight win streak that saw her submit Elise Reed (4-4 UFC) and earn unanimous decisions against Bruna Brasil (2-3 UFC) and Denise Gomes (4-2 UFC). As a fantasy play, I can understand some enthusiasm for Lookboonmee because she has an impressive +1.6 significant strike differential over an 8-fight sample, and she averages 1.9 takedowns per 15 minutes, but I would caution folks that she has yet to eclipse 95 fantasy points. The upside for the Thai fighter is a pure fade on her opponent, who has been finished in 3 of her 4 UFC fights.

Istela Nunes (0-4 UFC) suffered a disgusting accidental arm injury in the first 30 seconds of a bout with Victoria Dudakova (2-2 UFC), so the promotion extended her 4-fight contract to give her one more opportunity to prove herself. That being said, Nunes has been done no favors in terms of matchmaking since she arrived in the UFC. All of her opponents are .500 or better in the promotion. My issue with Nunes is multifaceted. She starts off fights looking confident and dangerous on the feet, but she has shown on multiple occasions that she will slow down and capitulate when pushed deeper into fights. Sam Hughes got dominated in the first frame on the feet and proceeded to take Nunes down straight into dominant positions in rounds 2 and 3 and nearly earned the finish. Ariane Carnelossi was getting busted up at distance, but when she continued to pursue takedowns, Nunes got sloppy, tired, and quit on herself in the third round. Yazmin Jauregui (who has proven to have a chin liability in the UFC) was getting pieced up in the first frame, but she recorded 2 knockdowns and easily ground and pounded Nunes to a finish in the second round.

One of my rules for picking fights is a phrase that I first heard from Jon Anik: “the ABCs say always bet on cardio.” Loma Lookboonmee has proven she can fight hard for 15 minutes, she can mix the martial arts more effectively, and she can beat UFC-level fighters. Her only losses in the promotion are against respected veterans in Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez. Nunes has not proven herself to be UFC level, and Lookboonmee has. The price is prohibitive given her lack of proven DFS results, but I think the right fighter is favored. If Lookboonmee is wise enough to pursue takedowns throughout this contest, I think she will find the finish late.

Prediction: Loma Lookboonmee defeats Istela Nunes via Stoppage Rd. 3 / UDEC

Talita Alencar ($8,200) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos ($8,000)