MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Evloev vs. Murphy
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Evloev vs. Murphy.
The Octagon is headed back to London town for a 14-fight banger with a ton of local flair, as 12 athletes from the United Kingdom will be represented while many of Europe’s best prospects take center stage in front of the combat sports leader’s global audience. In the main event, only one man can leave with his undefeated record intact. The hometown underdog Lerone Murphy looks to halt the 18-0 campaign of Russia’s smothering wrestler, Movsar Evloev.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.
UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy – MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Luana Carolina ($8,200) vs. Melissa Mullins ($8,000)
Fight Odds: -134 Carolina vs. +110 Mullins
Weight Class: 135lb. (Women’s Bantamweight)
Luana Carolina (6-4 UFC) looked like a really bad fighter when she first arrived in the UFC, but she has made some clear improvements over time. Michelle Montague (1-0 UFC) finished all of her professional opponents prior to Carolina, and she was unable to come close to finishing the Brazilian. Carolina has a pair of glaring losses on her resume (both via finish) against Ariane Lipski da Silva (6-8 UFC; SUB2) and Molly McCann (7-7 UFC; KO3). She is also 0-2 at the O2 Arena in London, so she will have to exercise some demons to get her first win in the U.K. On the feet, Carolina should be the much better striker. This is a clear striker vs. grappler archetypal matchup.
Enter the grappler, Melissa Mullins (2-2 UFC), who ironically has fewer submission wins as a professional than her opponent (0-0 to the SUB vs. 1-1 to the SUB). “No Mess” Mullins won her UFC debut via unanimous decision against Irina Alekseeva (1-3 UFC) and then squandered her momentum by first missing weight and then suffering a TKO defeat at the hands of Nora Cornolle (3-3 UFC) in her sophomore appearance. Mullins again missed weight for her bounce-back TKO2 (GNP) win against Klaudia Sygula (2-1 UFC), but she followed it up with a decision loss against Darya Zheleznyakova (2-1 UFC), whom Mullins had TKO’d in 2022. Mullins has struggled to turn her takedowns into consistent control time, she has a negative striking differential, and she was reversed by blue belt Nora Cornolle.
Carolina is the younger fighter with much more UFC experience, she is the larger woman, and she is a touch more athletic than her English counterpart. Both of these women are flawed fighters, but Carolina has shown signs of improving over time, while Mullins has arguably been regressing in front of our eyes in the UFC. Mullins has a path if she can get takedowns and top time, but I haven’t liked her fight IQ, her striking defense, or her level of preparedness.
Prediction: Luana Carolina defeats Melissa Mullins via KO/DEC
Shanelle Dyer ($9,400) vs. Ravena Oliveira ($6,800)
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights