MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Fiziev vs. Torres
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Fiziev vs. Torres.
The Octagon is headed back to Baku, Azerbaijan for a night of fights that promises violence. A whopping 10 of the 13 fights on the slate are favored to end inside the distance, including the lightweight main event. The more experienced hometown hero Rafael “Ataman” Fiziev looks to hold serve against the surging Mexican prospect Manuel “El Loco” Torres. All told, Azerbaijan will have 4 representatives carrying the banner. First to the cage will be debutant Tahir Abdullayev, who looks to get the ball rolling for the locals.
Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night – Fiziev vs. Torres: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Tahir Abdullayev ($8,300) vs. Jefferson Nascimento ($7,900)
Fight Odds: -115 Abdullayev vs. -105 Nascimento
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)
Tahir Abdullayev (UFC Debut) has a resume that is difficult to evaluate. The positives are that he has had 24 pro fights, he has a solid 16-1 record in fights that end ITD, and he has no disqualifying losses on his record. Abdullayev was outworked over 5 rounds against crafty veteran Josh Togo (13-6 Pro; 9-1 as a pro in DECs), and he dropped a competitive 5-rounder against the undefeated Khotam Boynazarov (13-0 Pro). His only finish loss was a SUB2 8 years ago against eventual UFC fighter Roman Bogatov (was 5-0, retired 13-2 pro). Abdullayev seems like a competent wrestler with functional striking and an effective top game, but he has never really secured a standout win that validates he is UFC level. The biggest on-paper edge for Abdullayev in this fight is his experience at welterweight for the last 7 years.
Jefferson Nascimento (UFC Debut) checks a lot of boxes as a UFC prospect. He is undefeated, he is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt, and he has finished 8 of his 13 professional victories. Perhaps the most bullish signal on Nascimento is that he won the LFA Interim Lightweight Championship and defended his title twice. On paper, Nascimento has the slightly better wins, but I thought he arguably deserved to lose the split decision against Italo Gomes (was 12-3, now 13-7) because he was giving up takedowns and playing too long off his back. He has a bad habit of dropping rounds in fights that he goes on to win. “Toddynho” started his career in the welterweight division, but he has spent his last 3 years competing at 155lbs. His opponent has been competing at welterweight for the majority of his career.
Oddsmakers opened the undefeated Jefferson as a -200 favorite. The line quickly corrected, making Abdullayev a small favorite. After running the tape, I rate Nascimento a better, cleaner, and more damaging striker, but I can’t fully trust him to stay upright, particularly up a weight class. I would favor Abdullayev in a decision-only market because he is likely to pursue takedowns and top control and he is fighting at home. Nascimento likes to hunt submissions off his back, he pursues guillotines as part of his takedown defense, and he is making a quick turnaround off a fight where he took a serious cut to his eye from a spinning elbow in late May. I think Nascimento has more finishing upside, but I am not sure that he is likely to get a fair shake on the scorecards, particularly if he concedes a lot of control time in this fight like he did against Italo Gomes (on the ground) and most recently against Gian Maurente (against the cage). I agree with this fight being closer to a coin flip than a -200 in either direction.
Prediction: Abdullayev via TKO (Cut Stoppage) / DEC or Nascimento via Finish
Jean Matsumoto ($8,400) vs. Bekzat Almakhan ($7,800)
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights