MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Hernandez vs. Pereira

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2024-10-19 18:54:12 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The bar has been set high for the middleweights taking center stage on UFC Fight Night after Brandon Royval and Tatsuro Taira turned in an instant classic in last week’s main event. Now, born showman Michel “Demolidor” Pereira takes on one of the highest-paced grapplers in the entire UFC. The card also features exciting young talents and solid veteran names, so we should be in store for a fantastic night of fights.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown for UFC Fight Night – Hernandez vs. Pereira

Darren Elkins $8,000 vs. Daniel Pineda $8,200

Fight Odds: -114 Elkins vs. -106 Pineda
Weight Class: 145lb. (Featherweight)

Darren Elkins and Daniel Pineda are two elder statesmen in the featherweight division looking to get their first wins of 2024 as the year begins to draw to a close. Elkins is coming off a 3rd-round submission win over TJ Brown last October, and the 40-year-old fighter still has ambitions inside the octagon. Pineda is coming off a pair of unanimous decision losses across from Alex Caceres and Nathaniel Wood most recently (7/2024).

Daniel Pineda has always been plagued by a front-loaded style. He can throw punishing strikes early in fights, and he has a very credible black belt that he has leveraged to produce a 19-6 career record to the submission. He also has a 9-3 record to the knockout, but he has only secured a single stoppage with strikes in the UFC against the recently cut Herbert Burns (2-4 UFC). What stands out the most is his 0-7 career record to the decision, which is wild for a fighter with more than 40 pro fights to have never won a decision. The 39-year-old fighter has never had good cardio, but you have to imagine it’s only getting worse over time.

Darren Elkins is very slow and hittable when he starts his fights, and that could be his downfall against Pineda. Opponents who have had success against Elkins have jumped on him early, never let him get off the starting block. Examples include Cub Swanson (lost via KO1), Chad Mendes (lost via KO1), Charles Oliveira (lost via SUB1), and Ted Worthington (KO1 :09). The difficulty with picking Pineda outright is knowing Elkins’ penchant for gassing people out, baiting errant submission attempts and then finding his way to dominant positions late. Pineda is the classic archetype of opponent to fall apart under Elkins’ pressure, which is why this is such compelling matchmaking.

Ultimately, one of my baseline principles in MMA is to “always bet on cardio,” an adage I heard repeated by the voice of the UFC, Jon Anik. Darren Elkins personifies grit, toughness, and a willingness to drag opponents into dark waters where they are not comfortable swimming. Pineda has to kill Elkins early (in all likelihood), or he will have a zombie of a man who knows no other way but forward through the fire, chasing him down for the full 3 rounds. When both athletes are 39+, the variance meter ticks up, but Elkins (18-10 UFC) is the proven UFC fighter, and Pineda (5-7 UFC) seems ready to ride off into the sunset.

Prediction: Darren Elkins defeats Daniel Pineda via Stoppage in Rd.2/3 (or Pineda Rd. 1)

Jake Hadley $7,700 vs. Cam Smotherman $6,700