MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Hernandez vs. Rodrigues
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Hernandez vs. Rodrigues.
After an all-time great episode of Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series, the fighter in Sacramento will have a tough act to follow. Luckily, the card is replete with violent finishers and California representatives who will look to do the Golden State proud. The Octagon is returning to the Golden 1 Center for the first time in 7 years, headlined by Dunningan, California’s own Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. After dropping his last fight against the champion, America’s BAMF is looking to maintain his top-10 ranking against Brazil’s Robocop, Gregory Rodrigues.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights coming soon!
UFC Fight Night – Hernandez vs. Rodrigues: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Shanelle Dyer ($9,700) vs. Elise Reed ($6,500)
Fight Odds: -950 Dyer vs. +540 Reed
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)
Shanelle Dyer (1-0 UFC) got walked in pretty brutal fashion by Carol Foro (1-0 UFC) on DWCS last season, but her refusal to quit and her ability to absorb damage earned her the contract despite the losing effort. Dyer proved matchmakers made the right decision when she folded Ravena Oliveira (0-4 UFC) in her UFC debut in London. Now, the Great Britain Top Team rep is flying to the states to open the card against her more experienced American counterpart, Elise Reed (4-5 UFC). Dyer passes the eye test as a striker, but she has failed 11 of 12 takedown attempts in the UFC and was finished in all 3 of her amateur losses, including in embarrassing fashion against Indy Briar (was 1-3 am, now 0-5 Pro). Dyer is also not guaranteed to run away with the scorecards, as she went to a split decision with Valentina Scatizzi (3-4 Pro) in the PFL.
Elise Reed has only defeated one opponent with a winning record in the UFC, a split decision vs. Cory McKenna (3-3 UFC), but that is still more than Dyer can say. The Sacramento native is currently under water in the UFC, but she has lost to quality fighters like Denise Gomes (6-2 UFC), Lupita Godinez (9-6 UFC), Loma Lookboonmee (7-4 UFC), Sam Hughes (6-6 UFC), and Sijara Eubanks (5-5 UFC) in her short-notice UFC debut. In other words, Reed has never lost to a fighter with a record below .500 (over a 10+ fight sample) in the UFC. If Reed is able to beat Dyer, it will instantly jump to her best win inside the promotion because of the hype that Dyer brings into the contest. The only woman Reed has successfully wrestled inside the octagon was Melissa Martinez (1-2 UFC), halting her undefeated record on the strength of 3 takedowns and 3.5 minutes of control time. I think she would be wise to test her opponent’s wrestling defense, which neither of her previous opponents attempted. All amateur losses for Dyer were on the mat in round 3, suggesting she can be broken more easily on the mat than on the feet. Reed’s biggest liability on the feet is her low lead hand which got her rocked twice (and eventually finished) by Denise Gomes (6-2 UFC) in her last fight.
In a pure striking affair, I have to favor Dyer because she is the bigger, younger woman who throws more reliable output. She is also the more lethal finisher on the feet, with 5 of her 7 professional wins via KO/TKO, often in devastating fashion (head kick, spinning attacks). Comparatively, Reed only has 2 stoppage wins in her career (0 in the UFC), but she has a style that judges’ gravitate toward, posting a 6-0 record in fights that go to decision. Reed has the best on-paper wins of the bunch, including pre-UFC, where she defeated Jillian Decoursey (6-4 Pro; Invicta Champion) and Jasmine Jasudavicius (9-3 UFC; 15-4 Pro). Her path to winning this fight is avoiding the high kicks, looking for opportunities to cage-press/wrestle, and testing the resolve of her opponent in an extended fight. Dyer is the more impressive athlete with a dynamic crowd-pleasing style, but she is taking a clear step up in competition in a less-favorable setting than the Oliveira fight (at home in England), and she is an even bigger favorite this time around. Reed can be a bit flaky against talented grapplers, but Dyer hasn’t shown herself to be on that level on the mat. Barring a KO from Dyer, I expect competitive minutes.
Prediction: Shanelle Dyer via KO/SDEC or Elise Reed via Rd. 3/SDEC
Jackson McVey ($8,700) vs. Wes Schultz ($7,500)
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights