MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Hooker vs. Parnasse
Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Hooker vs. Parnasse.
Fight fans always bring the energy in Paris for their fight night events, and they will have plenty of opportunities to get loud for their local fighters, with 9 French athletes competing on the card. The event will be bookended by French debutants looking to prove that they are UFC level. In the main event, Salahdine Parnasse jumps into the deep end at lightweight opposite a ranked Dan “The Hangman” Hooker, who makes his 25th walk to the octagon. In the first fight of the night, Delphine Benouaich looks to make good on her first UFC opportunity when she takes on Argentina’s DWCS veteran Sofia “La Bruja” Montenegro.
Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night – Hooker vs. Parnasse: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Delphine Benouaich ($8,500) vs. Sofia Montenegro ($7,700)
Fight Odds: -162 Benouaich vs. +126 Montenegro
Weight Class: 115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)
Delphine Benouaich (UFC Debut) and Sofia Montenegro (UFC Debut; 0-1 DWCS) are both getting their first UFC opportunity after falling short in entertaining fashion on different promotional vehicles from the UFC extended universe. Benouaich is the fighter around whom this matchup was built, as she is French fighter who advanced to the semifinals on The Ultimate Fighter Season 34 before losing to Valesca “Tina Black” Machado via unanimous decision. The best part of Benouaich’s game is her boxing and her low kicks, as she is a willing combination puncher, a tough woman, and a conditioned athlete who shows up in serious shape. Benouaich also has admirable survival instincts, as she has never been finished across her 8 combined pro, amateur, and exhibition losses. What I don’t like about Benouaich’s tape is that she calls her own fouls a lot, her takedown defense is not very good (particularly in open space), and she can be bullied physically by assertive athletes.
Montenegro is an Argentine national who has been cross-training between Astra Team and the UFC Performance Institute in Mexico since she lost to Jeisla Chaves (1-1 UFC) via split decision on DWCS last September. Montenegro nearly finished her opponent with strikes in the 2nd round (recording the only KD of the fight), she secured the only takedown of the fight, and she accrued 6+ minutes of control time. The fight was a virtual coin flip in the end, but Montenegro was hard done by poor officiating, sacrificing a dominant position late in the fight because of her confusion and possibly costing her the round and the fight in the process. With fewer than 10 pro fights, Montenegro has a lot of room for growth, particularly on a technical level, but she has the foundations of a solid game at 27 and is training with UFC-level pros to get better. She hits a nice double-leg trip, she pushes forward with punches from the opening bell, and she shows solid if unremarkable skills from the top position. The equalizer in this matchup is the fact that Montenegro has more questionable durability. She has been finished with strikes within 30 seconds on the regionals, she has been hurt and rocked multiple times on film, and she is making her first descent to the strawweight division after 8 pro bouts at flyweight (125lbs).
This fight feels like a virtual coin flip; both women present a similar style and have offsetting advantages. Benouaich gets the benefit of fighting at home, so she could get favorable scorecards in a fight that is expected to go to decision at a 70% clip. She also has a bounty of experience as an amateur (10-5), as a professional (7-2 Pro), and on TUF (1-1). On the other side, Montenegro is the younger fighter by 4 years, she is more likely to be making big improvements fight over fight, and she is the much larger woman in terms of both height (3” advantage) and reach (4” advantage). She also looks like the more physical fighter on film in terms of both wrestling and power punching. If you pressed me for a winner, I would say the tie goes to the local fighter, but both women have a lot to prove at this level.
Prediction: Either Woman via TKO/SDEC
Matthieu Duclos ($8,200) vs. Luis Felipe Dias ($8,000)
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights
