MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Kape vs. Almabayev

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-03-03 14:31:16 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The Ultimate Fighting Championship put on an incredible show last Saturday night until an anticlimactic eye poke finish ended the night with a whimper. Now the UFC is limping back to the Apex Center with a 10-fight slate that has been decimated by weigh-in day shenanigans. Flyweights will take center stage in the main event with Manel “Starboy” Kape looking to cement himself as a future title challenger, taking on the highly credentialed Asu Almabayev, a flyweight on the rise who quickly established a 4-0 undefeated record in the promotion. It’s flyweight fireworks in Vegas.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Kape vs. Almabayev

Danny Barlow ($9,200) vs. Sam Patterson ($7,000)

Fight Odds: -320 Barlow vs. +235 Patterson
Weight Class: 170lb. (Welterweight)

This matchup has all the makings of an extremely binary and volatile matchup in the welterweight division. “LeftHand2God” Danny Barlow (2-0 UFC) has finished 6 of his 9 professional opponents en route to a 9-0 undefeated professional record. Barlow is a southpaw striker with dynamic power, solid hand speed, and above-average athleticism. As a grappler, Barlow is relatively untested. He has defended only 3 takedowns in as many UFC fights. As an amateur, he was submitted by heel hook, and he lost a submission grappling match (combat jiu-jitsu) via points against 7-3 pro MMA fighter Christian Echols. Barlow’s grappling is at best unproven and, at worst, a liability waiting to be exposed.

Enter Sam Patterson, a more experienced professional (12-2-1) with a 2-1 record in the UFC and a 2-0 record since moving up to the welterweight division. Patterson was a massive lightweight, so he has fit in better at 170 pounds, where he doesn’t have to kill himself to make weight, and he still has an imposing frame. Patterson will be 1” taller than Barlow (6’3” vs. 6’2”), he is 1 year younger (28 vs. 29), and he has all the grappling upside on paper. Patterson is a quality BJJ black belt with a 7-0 career record in the submission prop. In UFC & DWCS fights where he was credited with a submission attempt, he is 3-0 with 3 SUBs.

If Patterson is unable to get takedowns, he is likely to be a mark for the power punching of Danny Barlow. This fight is a great test for both athletes because Patterson’s biggest liability is his chin and Barlow’s biggest liability is his grappling. Both fighters will have an opportunity to test each other’s skills, but the odds do not reflect that. Barlow is certainly talented, but he is coming off a split decision win in which he was outlanded by Nikolay Veretennikov 50 to 47 on significant strikes. He has been injured in both of his first two UFC fights; he has had competitive minutes in both fights, and he has absorbed damage from return fire. Patterson has low-level UFC wins, but so does Barlow, and this line assumes facts not in evidence.

Prediction: Danny Barlow via KO or Sam Patterson via SUB