MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: MMA DFS Picks: UFC Fight Night - Machado Garry vs. Prates

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-04-26 00:20:34 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC returns to Kansas City for the first time since 2023 for a welterweight title eliminator between the boisterous Ian Machado Garry and the surging “Nightmare” Carlos Prates, the cigarette-wielding knockout artist towing an 11-fight win streak into this contest. Let’s begin with the prelims, as we have plenty of fights to dive into.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Machado Garry vs. Prates

Joselyne Edwards ($9,000) vs. Chelsea Chandler ($7,200)

Fight Odds: -340 Edwards vs. +250 Chandler
Weight Class: W135lb. (Women’s Bantamweight)

Joselyne Edwards (5-4 UFC) has missed weight in 3 of her last 5 fights, and those were the 3 fights that Edwards won. This fight is one of the most important on the card to watch the scales to see if either of these fighters miss weight. Chelsea Chandler (2-2 UFC) has missed weight twice in row after dropping to the UFC’s bantamweight division when the featherweight division ceased to exist. Chandler made weight at featherweight and at 140lbs catchweight, but she hasn’t seen the bantamweight limit since June of 2019 when she was fighting in Invicta.

Joseleyne Edwards should look to sprawl and brawl to win this fight because she has a 2” reach advantage, crisper striking technique, and a more diverse arsenal of strikes (primarily kicks). She has a superior takedown defense rate on paper (61% vs. 33%), but I would argue Edwards has fought less physical grapplers than Chandler has by a significant margin. Edwards’ UFC wins have come against low-level fighters like Tamires Vidal (1-3 UFC), Lucie Pudilova (3-8 UFC), Ji Yeon Kim (3-7 UFC), Ramona Pascual (0-3 UFC), and Yanan Wu (1-5 UFC). Every fighter of substance Edwards has ever fought has defeated her. Edwards has also had a somewhat fortunate run out winning 2 split decisions in a row against Pudilova and Kim. Most of Edwards’ losses come against quality opponents, but she fights on thin margins, she ends up in horrible positions in a lot of her fights, and she is susceptible to getting hurt striking.

Chelsea Chandler did not look like she was physically prepared for her last fight against Yana Santos (5-5 UFC), but she rallied to win the third round on 2 of the 3 judges’ scorecards. Chandler managed to secure one takedown against Norma Dumont (8-2 UFC) at featherweight, but she was unable to prevent Dumont’s takedowns. When Chandler gets top position, she tends to be heavy on top and land smothering ground and pound. She smashed Julija Stoliarenko in brutal fashion in her UFC debut, and she beat up Josiane Nunes proper with 2 takedowns, 7 minutes of control, and 100 total strikes. Chandler isn’t a sophisticated striker, but she is tough enough to exchange to get inside, and she can have success bullying opponents against the fence and on the floor when she gets takedowns.

I think the odds are presumptuous here because Chandler could just need a takedown or two to do serious damage or bank rounds, but I suggest you wait for weigh-ins with these fighters. Chandler opened a +190 underdog, and the line has been steamed up by the betting public.

Prediction: Chelsea Chandler defeats Joselyne Edwards via TKO2/SDEC (Low Confidence)

Roberto Romero ($8,300) vs. Timmy Cuamba ($7,900)