MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Medic vs. Rodriguez

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2026-07-31 00:44:15 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Medic vs. Rodriguez.

The octagon is headed to Belgrade, Serbia for a 14-fight slate headlined by the emerging Serbian welterweight, Uros “The Doctor” Medic. Throughout the night, hometown fans will have plenty of opportunities to support their local heroes, as 8 Serbs will be competing on the card. All told, this card feels like a showcase of European MMA with 19 Europeans among the 28 fighters competing on the card. We have a fresh slate of UFC debutants looking to make their mark, beginning with Belgrade’s own Marina Spasic in the curtain jerker.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night – Medic vs. Rodriguez: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Stephanie Luciano ($8,900) vs. Marina Spasic ($7,300)

Fight Odds: -310 Luciano vs. +230 Spasic
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Stephanie “Rondinha” Luciano (2-1 UFC) hasn’t been in the octagon since she defeated Ravena Oliveira (0-3 UFC) last October, but it wasn’t for a lack of trying. Luciano accepted a fight against Carol Foro, but Foro was pulled from the bout after an adverse finding on a drug test. She was rebooked against Alexia Thainara, but an injury forced her to withdraw on short notice. Now “Rondinha” has to fly across the world to Serbia to compete against a Serbian kickboxer in hostile territory. Luciano will have all of the anthropomorphic advantages in this matchup (younger, taller, longer reach), she has a 2-1-1 record in UFC/DWCS competition (experience edge), and she seems like the more effective grappler of the pair by a wide margin. We have seen how rapidly Luciano can improve, as she rematched Talita Alencar (4-1 UFC) after a draw on DWCS and in the second fight, she scored a knockdown, held Alencar to a single takedown, and outlanded her opponent by 31 significant and 42 total strikes. Luciano looks like the more effective kicker on film, but she has to respect the body kick and counter punching coming back at her. Sam Hughes was able to have some success wrestle-boxing Luciano, and that is how her opponent is likely to approach the fight.

Marina Spasic (UFC Debut) is the first Serbian fighter to make the walk in Belgrade, and she will be looking to add to her impressive 86% finish rate against the toughest opponent of her career to date. Spasic suffered her only career defeat against Marina Merchuk (7-2 Pro) because of a lack of defensive responsibility on the feet and a lack of effective offense on the mat. “Maki Beki” strikes well to different levels of the body, but most of the opponents she was fighting were unable to offer substantive resistance. When she fought another competent striker, she was forced to use her wrestling B-game, and it looked to me like she was muscling takedowns, failing to consolidate extended top control, and not offering viable submission threats. Even in her KO wins, you see her defensive vulnerabilities, allowing the likes of Maristela Alves (7-5 Pro) to Pez dispenser her chin and Samin Kamal Beik (6-7 Pro) to take her down multiple times and threaten multiple heel hook submissions.

Marina Spasic looks like she could win fights at the lower levels of the UFC’s strawweight division, but this is a tough first assignment against a woman who is comfortable in a striking battle on the feet, who is more likely to sustain grappling success, and who has proven her craft against UFC-level fighters. We know that Luciano can defend herself on the mat against competent opposition, but that remains unknown for Spasic. What we did see in the Beik fight tells me that Spasic is at best a work in progress on the mat, and she could get audited at the UFC level. Spasic may have moments on the feet, but I feel like Luciano can potentially bully her physically and outgrapple her technically. Luciano should also be able to match or exceed the conditioning work rate of her opponent (averaging 5+ strikes per minute and 1+ takedowns per 15 minutes).

Prediction: Stephanie Luciano defeats Marina Spasic via Rd. 2/3/DEC

Jovan Leka ($8,700) vs. Alexander Poppeck ($7,500)

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