MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Moicano vs. Duncan

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2026-04-03 01:21:23 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Vannata of the UFC

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Moicano vs. Duncan.

In order to make stacked fight cards like UFC 327/328 and the UFC Freedom 250 one-time-only event, the company is more than willing to sacrifice the quality of Fight Night events such as the offering we get this Saturday against the humble Apex backdrop. The card will have some decently matched fights, some interesting prospects, and a promising main event, but it will also have a number of fighters returning from extended layoffs and a number of fighters with losing records in the promotion fighting for their continued employment. The first fight is one of the most perplexing fights on the bill, as Kai Kamaka III (1-2-1 UFC) returns to the promotion after nearly 5 years away to take on debutant Dakota Hope on short notice.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan – MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Kai Kamaka III ($8,700) vs. Dakota Hope ($7,500)

Fight Odds: -170 Kamaka vs +132 Hope
Weight Class: 145lb. (Featherweight)

Kai Kamaka III (1-2-1 UFC) won his UFC debut against Tony Kelley (2-2 UFC) via unanimous decision, but he was cut from the promotion after his next 3 fights saw him go 0-2-1 with a TKO2 loss against Jonathan Pearce (5-4 UFC), a split decision loss against TJ Brown (3-5 UFC), and a majority DRAW against Danny Chavez (1-2-1 UFC). Since his departure, Kamaka has posted a 9-3 record competing for the likes of Bellator, PFL, and Tuff’E’Nuff in Las Vegas. Kamaka received this short-notice call up after registering TKOs in 2 of his last 3 wins. Kamaka has only finished 4 of his 17 professional victories, but he has a very respectable 13-5 record in decisions. He has quality wins over the likes of Joshua Weems (13-6 Pro), Henry Corrales (21-8 Pro), Pedro Carvalho (14-10 Pro), and Bubba Jenkins (21-9 Pro). Even when people get the best of Kamaka, they tend to do so by winning close decisions on thin margins. Kamaka’s last 4 losses were split decisions against Diego Brandao (32-22 Pro), Brendan Loughnane (30-6 Pro), Justin Gonzales (15-6 Pro), and TJ Brown (20-12 Pro).

Dakota Hope (UFC Debut) made his amateur MMA debut in 2018 while Kai Kamaka had already been fighting professionally for 6 years. After a 3-0 amateur run that featured 3 decision wins (including one split), Hope graduated to the professional ranks where he began his campaign 5-0, winning and defending the Peak FC Featherweight Championship. In his second attempted defense of the title, Hope was upset by a fighter 7 years his senior in the form of regional journeyman David “The Boss” Bosnick (13-6 Pro). Hope tried to put Bosnick away after hurting him in the 2nd round, emptied the gas tank, and fought on fumes for the remainder of the bout until nearly submitting Bosnick in the waning seconds of round 5. Hope is a very green fighter. He has promise and potential because he is a dynamic athlete, his wrestling is solid, and he has power in his hands. The problem with his game is his inconsistency fight over fight, his inconsistency minute over minute, and his seeming inability to control a fight.

Hope seems like a fighter who can eventually put together a really solid MMA game, but he is still in the learning and development phase. He can punch himself out by over-swinging with power instead of picking his shots or putting them together like Kamaka. Kamaka stays more poised, he stays more within himself, and he has more high-level experience to fall back on. It is possible Hope can land a big bomb on the feet or secure some takedowns in this fight, but I don’t see him having consistent success over 15 minutes. Give me Kamaka to land the cleaner punches and combinations on the feet, to sprawl and brawl, and to earn a hard-fought victory.

Prediction: Kai Kamaka III defeats Dakota Hope via KO/DEC

Dione Barbosa ($8,500) vs. Melissa Gatto ($7,700)

Want to read more? Sign up for MMA Premium!

This content can help you make better MMA DFS picks

To access this content, subscribe to MMA Premium or purchase a 3-day trial.
An MMA subscription will allow you to access this content and much more!