MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Moicano vs. Saint-Denis

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2024-09-28 15:48:51 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

Paris is in for a treat, as the UFC returns with French hometown hero Benoit Saint-Denis, “The God of War,” in his first UFC main event. Before seeking glory in the UFC, Saint-Denis was a special forces operator for the French military. Now he is back in a big fight after coming up short against Dustin Poirier in his most recent outing. The card is filled with French talent from top to bottom, including in the main card opener, where “The Smile Killer” Fares Ziam will lock horns with Matt “The Steamrolla” Frevola.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown for UFC Fight Night – Moicano vs. Saint-Denis

Fares Ziam $8,000 vs. Matt Frevola $8,200

Fight Odds: -130 Ziam vs. +110 Frevola
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

Fares “Smile Killer” Ziam has a number of on paper advantages in the main card opener. Firstly, the French fighter will have the support of his home crowd. He turned in a career best performance against Michal Figlak last time he fought in Paris, outwrestling him 3 takedowns to 1 and more than doubling his total of significant strikes (60 vs. 28).

Ziam is also going to be the larger athlete, standing 6’1” (compared to just 5’9” for Frevola) and possessing a 4” reach advantage (75” vs. 71”). He has had more professional bouts than Matt Frevola despite being the younger athlete by 7 years. Ziam has completed 19 pro MMA bouts with 7 at the UFC level (5-2), while Frevola has completed just 16 pro MMA bouts with 10 at the UFC level (5-4-1).

The only advantages Frevola has on paper leading into this contest would be his higher quality of opposition, his superior punching power, and his takedown upside. Frevola is looking to bounce back after being dispatched by Benoit Saint-Denis via a head kick KO in the first frame at Madison Square Garden last November. Frevola secured his first takedown since 2019 in that bout, and he would be wise to go back to that strategy against Ziam.

Ziam has given up 17 takedowns in 7 UFC fights and more than 33 minutes of control time to his opponents. He does a good job limiting his opponents’ striking output, but he has never eclipsed 61 significant strikes despite going the full 15 minutes against 6 of his 7 opponents.

The reason I believe Ziam is favored is because he is the more durable fighter of the two, having absorbed 0 knockdowns in the UFC compared to Frevola, who has been knocked down 6 times and stopped with strikes on 3 occasions. Frevola is an underrated grappler, having dominated Jalin Turner with takedowns back in 2019, but if he elects to trade with Ziam, he is more likely to get sparked because of his age, his history of KO losses, and his accrued damage. Frevola is more likely to win via submission, but the decision likely trends toward the younger man, the hometown fighter, and the man who has more frequently seen the cards.

Prediction: Fares Ziam defeats Matt Frevola via TKO1 or SDEC

Morgan Charriere $9,500 vs. Gabriel Miranda $6,700