MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Moreno vs. Erceg

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-03-28 23:55:05 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The UFC returns to Mexico City after a lackluster letdown in London. Elevation tends to produce sloppy cardio dumps, but it also produces more finishes. The card is a mixed bag, but the general theme seems like untrustworthy favorites with prohibitive price tags. Let’s see if we can navigate the minefield and come away with a win.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Moreno vs. Erceg

Marquel Mederos ($8,700) vs. Austin Hubbard ($7,500)

Fight Odds: -172 Mederos vs. +140 Hubbard
Weight Class: 155lb. (Lightweight)

Marquel Mederos (1-0 UFC) is looking to keep the ball rolling with another win, but this time, he will have to overcome a UFC veteran in the form of Austin “Thud” Hubbard (4-6 UFC). Mederos was able to defeat Landon Quinones (0-2 UFC) as a small favorite in his debut, and he derailed Issa Isakov (10-3 Pro) as a small underdog to earn his contract on DWCS. Now he is installed as a moderate favorite over the most experienced and battle-tested opponent of his young career. Mederos trains with a solid team at Factory-X (at elevation in Colorado), but he has no regional-level wins that distinguish him, and his win over Quinones was a disputed decision among fans and media despite being unanimous on the judges’ scorecards.

Austin Hubbard is far from an impressive UFC fighter, but he has lost to 5 opponents with winning UFC records, and he has only been finished via submission as a professional (Mederos has 0 career wins by submission, pro and amateur). Hubbard is likely to have the wrestling upside of the pair, averaging 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. He also has similar striking metrics and a 2” reach advantage.

Mederos projects higher in the UFC long term because he is 5 years younger (28 vs. 33) and he has had more time to develop his skills. Hubbard is neither the most athletically gifted nor the most skilled, but he fights with dogged determination and has clearly tested himself against the much higher level of competition. Both fighters train at elevation, but Hubbard is used to being in difficult 15 minute UFC fights, so I think the line is underselling his chance to compete closely.

Prediction: Austin Hubbard defeats Marquel Mederos via SDEC

Jamall Emmers ($9,100) vs. Gabriel Miranda ($7,100)