MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Muhammad vs. Bonfim

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2026-06-05 11:23:01 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Muhammad vs. Bonfim.

When the UFC brings fights to the Apex, they often bring fewer stars, fewer meaningful fights, and gear the card toward a hardcore audience. This week, likely in anticipation for next week’s UFC Freedom 250, the Apex will play host to one of the most compelling fight nights of the year. The card has a bit of everything, from violent, low-level WMMA to meaningful contendership fights in the bantamweight, middleweight, and welterweight divisions. Let us begin in earnest with the aforementioned “violent, low-level WMMA.”

Editor’s Note: Analysis of the remaining fights is coming soon!

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

UFC Fight Night – Muhammad vs. Bonfim: MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown

Ketlen Souza ($8,900) vs. Ariane Carnelossi ($7,300)

Fight Odds: -310 Souza vs. +230 Carnelossi
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)

Ketlen Souza (3-3 UFC) and Ariane Carnelossi (3-3 UFC) first engaged in combat back in 2019 on the Brazilian regional scene, with Carnelossi earning the victory via TKO3. At the time, the 26-year-old Carnelossi was 11-1 while the 23-year-old Ketlen Souza was just 8-1. The fight was a breakout performance for “Sorriso,” as it led her to sign with the UFC for her debut against Angela Hill (14-16 UFC) in December of 2019. On paper, Carnelossi is 3-3 in the UFC with a win over Piera Rodriguez (5-2 UFC), but folks who remember that fight will recall Rodriguez fumbling the victory with an inexplicable headbutt after hurting Carnelossi standing. If you exclude her win via disqualification in a fight that was not competitive, Carnelossi hasn’t won a fight in the promotion since she defeated Na Liang (0-4 UFC) and Istela Nunes (0-5 UFC) back to back in 2021. The positives for Carnelossi are that she has the biggest arms in WMMA, she can muscle up some takedowns, and she swings with conviction on the feet. The major negatives are that she has regressed as a talent over time, likely due to injuries and a step up in competition from bottom-of-the-barrel, sub-UFC fighters.

After a rocky 8-3 start to her professional career, Souza was able to rattle off 5 victories on the Brazilian regionals, including a pair of title fights up at 135lbs and 125lbs. “Esquentadinha” was signed to the UFC for a flyweight fight shortly after she won the vacant Invicta flyweight title, and she was submitted in short order and in devastating fashion by “Killer” Karine Silva (5-3 UFC). Nearly a year later, Souza returned to the strawweight division, winning 3 of her next 5 starts and suffering her only 2 setbacks via split decision against divisional stalwart Angela Hill (14-16) and common opponent Piera Rodriguez (5-2 UFC). Unlike Carnelossi, who boasts legitimate wins over opponents with a combined record of 0-9 in the promotion, Souza has defeated Bruna Brasil (3-5 UFC) via unanimous decision and Yazmin Jauregui (3-2 UFC) via Club and SUB1. Souza isn’t a master of any particular domain in fighting, but she is a fairly well-rounded combatant, she has come into her own physically since she dropped to strawweight, and she has competed much better against common opponents than Carnelossi.

Carnelossi has a chance to outperform her betting odds if she is able to consistently take down Souza and exploit her 52% takedown defense rate. Souza has been taken down 13 times in 6 UFC appearances, and she has only recorded 2 takedowns of her own. If Souza is able to keep the fight upright, she has matured into a much more defensively responsible striker, and the stats reflect that she is more accurate, harder to hit, and more consistently getting ahead on the strike count. Both of these women have folded under pressure at different points in their careers, but recently, Souza has seemed to show the better gas tank while Carnelossi has been likely to fade. Give me the younger, healthier, more motivated athlete to win in her revenge fight.

Prediction: Ketlen Souza defeats Ariane Carnelossi via Stoppage Rd. 2/3/DEC

Jeisla Chaves ($9,300) vs. Yuneisy Duben ($6,900)

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