MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night - Oliveira vs. Gamrot

by Liam Heslin (LiamPicksFights) Last Updated 2025-10-10 01:52:34 Premium Content Part of the product MMA Premium

Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders.

The octagon returns to Rio de Janeiro with a card headlined by the beloved former lightweight champion and global superstar, Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (23-11 UFC) across from fellow grappling ace and suitable short-notice replacement Mateusz Gamrot (8-3 UFC). The Polish “Gamer” is looking to establish himself as a threat to the lightweight crown while Oliveira is looking to reassert himself atop the division he once ruled over.

Editor’s Note: Analysis of remaining fights is coming soon.

Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Underdog promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.

MMA DFS and Betting Breakdown: UFC Fight Night – Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Luan Lacerda ($8,900) vs. Saimon Oliveira ($7,300)

Fight Odds: -250 Lacerda vs. +198 Oliveira
Weight Class: 135lb. (Bantamweight)

Luan Lacerda (0-2 UFC) and Saimon Oliveira (0-3 UFC) are both winless in the organization and looking to give the matchmakers a reason to give them another contract. With a typical four-fight contract, maximal pressure is on Saimon Oliveira here as a loss could mean the end of his UFC journey. Neither man has been impressive yet inside the octagon, but they have been losing against credible opponents. Lacerda hasn’t competed in more than two years, but his two losses in the big show were in early 2023 against Cody Stamann (7-7-1 UFC) in his January debut and Da’Mon Blackshear (5-4-1 UFC) in June. Lacerda has decent technique, but he has never recorded a win by knockout, he has lost by all methods of victory in martial arts, and his reliance on the submission may cost him against a fighter who has never been submitted.

Saimon Oliveira is 0-3 in the UFC, but he does boast an impressive 11-0 professional record to the submission prop. His losses came against stiff competition in the forms of Tony Gravely (4-4 UFC), Daniel Marcos (4-1 UFC), and David Martinez (2-0 UFC; #11 ranked bantamweight). What jumps off the page breaking down this fight is that Oliveira has 24 pro fights compared to just 15 for Lacerda, he has never been submitted (unlike Lacerda), he has 5 wins by KO/TKO (compared to 0 for Lacerda), and he fought earlier this year in March of 2025. Oliveira has a potent front head lock series, he can snatch up guillotines, and his 16-2 record in fights that end inside the distance shows that he can find fight-ending positions.

I think both of these guys have a lot to prove in the UFC, but I will trust the recent activity, the depth of professional experience, and the more proven KO upside with Saimon Oliveira.

Prediction: Saimon Oliveira defeats Luan Lacerda via Stoppage –

-

-